Market Update by Solidecn.com

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EURMXN

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The EURMXN currency pair recently broke out of the bearish channel on the weekly chart. Just last week, the pair retested the broken channel, causing the price to surge to an October high.



Upon closer inspection of the 4-hour chart, we observe that the EURMXN bulls encountered a formidable barrier around the 19.4 resistance level. This has temporarily halted the rising momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator are both in the overbought area, mirroring the signals from the Bollinger Bands.



Given these technical indicators pointing to an overbought market, it is plausible that the EURMXN will experience sideways movement in the upcoming session before making another attempt to break through the 19.4 resistance. A close above this level would pave the way for the bulls to reach the 19.6 resistance level.

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EURHUF

The EURHUF pair exited the bearish channel, but bulls couldn't surpass the 391.6 resistance, indicated by a long wick pattern on the weekly chart. With RSI and Stochastic oscillator dipping below signal lines, the pair's outlook stays bearish.



On the daily chart, EURHUF broke the bearish trendline on October 23 and is now stabilizing below this level. The RSI is under 50, signaling bearishness, but the Stochastic oscillator is in oversold territory, suggesting a possible correction to 386 before further decline.



If EURHUF remains under the 388 pivot, bears aim for 379. However, if it closes above the pivot, the bearish scenario becomes invalid, and the market could rise to test and potentially breach the 394 resistance.

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EURCHF

Our EURCHF analysis shows a bearish trend with the pair trading below the 0.9524 resistance.



The 4-hour chart reveals a double bottom pattern, suggesting a potential rise. Despite this, our overall outlook remains bearish. Swing traders might see a bullish opportunity, but if the pair closes below 0.946, we expect a decline to 0.942.



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EURUSD

Last week, the EUR/USD tried to rise above a downward trend channel but didn’t succeed, so the channel is still active. The highest point reached was 1.0640, but it ended the day below the downward trend line, which might mean the trend line is still valid.

If it rises above the trend line, it could face resistance at 1.0620, 1.0640 and 1.0675, which are previous high points. Further up, there could be resistance at an earlier peak of 1.0737, which is currently where the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) is. Beyond that, another earlier high point near 1.0770 could also offer resistance.




A bearish triple moving average (TMA) pattern happens when the price is below the short-term SMA, which is below the medium-term SMA, which is in turn below the long-term SMA. All SMAs also need to be decreasing.

When looking at any combination of the 21-, 34-, 55- and 100-day SMAs, if they meet these conditions, it might suggest that a bearish momentum is developing.

On the downside, support might be found near the low points of early 2023 that were tested at the start of this month, with 1.0480 and 1.0440 as potential important levels.

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EURNZD

The EURNZD pair is currently trading within a bullish channel on the weekly chart, and it is presently above the 1.774 level, which is acting as a support for the price. The RSI indicator has flipped above the 50 line, indicating a bullish outlook for the EURNZD pair.




For a more detailed forecast of EURNZD, we zoom into the daily chart. The pair closed above the 1.783 level after breaking out of the daily bearish channel. While the RSI indicator is above the mid-line, suggesting bullishness, the stochastic oscillator indicates that the pair is overbought. Given this bullish outlook for EURNZD, we could expect a correction to recent gains with a retest of the pivot point.



With the price currently above the pivot point, the forecast for EURNZD suggests that the pair is targeting the 1.812 resistance level, followed by an August high around 1.816.

However, if the pair falls below 1.78, this would put a pause on the bullish scenario and could lead to a retest of the previous supply area around 1.75.

Key levels to watch:

Pivot: 1.78
Resistance: 1.81
Support: 1.75

Read full article here

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin has successfully breached the $28,000 threshold. This significant level had previously maintained Bitcoin’s price within a range of $28,000 to $25,000 since mid-August 2023.



Upon examining the BTCUSD 4-hour chart, it’s evident that Bitcoin, often referred to as ‘digital gold’, is trading within a bullish channel. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is currently in the overbought zone. The critical level that sustains BTCUSD’s bullish trend is $27,952. As long as the price remains above this level, Bitcoin is likely to trade above the median line of the bullish channel. Given that the RSI is in the overbought territory, a minor decline to the R1 level is anticipated. This level presents a substantial supply zone for BTCUSD bulls.



If the R1 level is breached, the next bearish target for the bulls would be the $27,237 pivot point, followed by the lower boundary of the bullish channel.

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GBPUSD

The British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD) is showing a decline in the European market on Tuesday. This is undoing some of the 0.65% increase we saw on Monday. The reason for this decline is weaker than expected growth in UK salaries, which is causing concern for those who want another rate hike from the Bank of England (BoE).

Everyone is waiting for the UK's inflation report for September, which will be released on Wednesday. The forecast is 6.5% year-on-year, compared to 6.7% in August, and the core is forecasted at 6.0% compared to 6.2% in August. If the September figure meets or falls below expectations, it will further discourage a hawkish view on rates and keep the pound on the defensive.



The recent drop in value is putting pressure on the initial support level at 1.2141 (the upward trend line from the 1.2037 low), before a crucial point at 1.2122 (Friday's low). If it falls below this, it could signal further decline and risk retesting the October 4 low at 1.2037.

The converged 10/20 day moving averages at 1.2200/13 are a crucial barrier. If it breaks through this level and stays above it, it could sideline immediate downside threats and pave the way for a new recovery.

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EURJPY

At the time of this EURJPY market analysis, the EURJPY is navigating a bullish channel, with the RSI indicator maintaining a position above the 50 level. On October 3, the pair managed to stay above the Ichimoku cloud, resulting in the continuation of the EURJPY uptrend. The primary hurdle for the EURJPY bulls is at the 158.64 mark.



For the bullish trend to persist, it’s crucial for the EURJPY bulls to achieve a close above the 158.64 level. Should this occur, the next target for this currency pair would be projected towards the 162.0 area.

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EURUSD

The European currency is stable between 1.05-1.06 levels due to lack of new data. Yesterday, there were no surprises due to the absence of significant economic data. The focus remains on the Middle East, but there are no signs of major escalation, bringing stability to international stock markets and reducing the need for dollar purchases.

It's too early to predict if de-escalation is likely. The European currency is under pressure due to ongoing concerns. Today's agenda includes U.S. retail sales data, which may confirm the U.S. economy's stronger momentum compared to Europe.




After a two-month downward trend, the European currency shows signs of stability. Unless there's a major market shock, it's likely to remain stable this month. As the market direction is unclear, it's best to wait and see. I'm considering buying more European currency after significant dips and new lows.