Market Update by Solidecn.com

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EURUSD Correction Phase and Fibonacci Retracement


Solid ECN - The EURUSD currency pair entered a correction phase after the bears hit the 1.06946 bottom. Currently, the price of the most traded currency pair is 1.0758, and it is about to test the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which also aligns with the Ichimoku cloud. The main barrier for further rise is the 1.0805 resistance. Should this level be breached, the consolidation phase would extend to the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance, the upper band of the bearish flag.

On the flip side, if the EURUSD price falls below 1.07316, the downtrend is likely to continue, and the first target would be the February 14th low, the 1.0694 mark.

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Silver Prices Rise Amid U.S. Economic Shifts



Solid ECN - The price of silver climbed to almost $23 for each ounce as market participants weighed the possibility of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates in May, following the latest economic indicators from the United States. The drop in U.S. retail sales was unexpectedly sharp at 0.8% for January, representing the most significant fall since March of the previous year.

Surprisingly, new unemployment claims fell to the lowest point in four weeks, mitigating the impact of the previously non-farm solid payroll figures. Additionally, Austan Goolsbee of the Chicago Federal Reserve advised caution against delaying interest rate cuts. In parallel, Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's Vice Chair for Supervision, remarked that the recent inflation figures suggest a challenging journey to achieving the 2% inflation goal.

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USDCHF Analysis: Bearish Flag Test and Fibonacci Support




Solid ECN - Sellers of the USDCHF have tested the lower band of the bearish flag at the 0.8782 mark. Interestingly, the price rebounded from 0.8782 and is attempting to stabilize within the channel and above the 78.2% Fibonacci level. The technical indicators remain neutral, with the RSI hovering around the median line and the bars of the Awesome Oscillator striving to stay above the signal line.

From a technical standpoint, the bullish outlook will remain valid if the USDCHF price stays above 0.8782. In this scenario, the bulls will likely aim for the high of February 13th, the 0.8885 mark.
On the other hand, if the value of the Canadian dollar surpasses 0.878, the bullish scenario should be invalidated. The next bearish target could be the 50% Fibonacci support level, further reinforced by the Ichimoku cloud.

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UK Retail Sales Surge in January 2024

Solid ECN - In January 2024, the UK saw a significant jump in retail sales, increasing by 3.4% from the previous month after a sharp decline of 3.3% in December. This increase surpassed the expected 1.5% rise and marked the most significant monthly growth in retail since April 2021. This growth spanned across most sectors except for clothing stores. Food store sales, particularly in supermarkets, increased by 3.4%, recovering from a 3.1% drop in December. Sales in non-food stores also saw a rebound, improving by 3.0% after a 3.9% fall in December.

Specifically, department stores and other specialized stores, like those selling sports equipment, enjoyed increases of 5.4% and 6.2%, respectively. This was partly attributed to the beneficial effects of January sales events. Sales in stores selling household goods, especially hardware stores, rose by 1.8%, whereas clothing stores experienced a 1.4% decrease. Furthermore, sales of automotive fuel saw a significant rise of 5.4%, aided by lower fuel prices.

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Gold Hits $2000 Amid Economic Concerns.



Solid ECN - The price of gold climbed to $2,000 per ounce last Thursday, boosted by a weaker dollar and lower bond yields. This increase came as investors welcomed the latest U.S. economic figures and looked forward to insights from Federal Reserve officials regarding when they might start reducing interest rates. U.S. retail sales fell significantly more than expected in January, and the number of people filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly hit a four-week low, hinting that the economy could be weaker than previously believed.

Austan Goolsbee, the President of the Chicago Federal Reserve, expressed concern on Wednesday about the risk of delaying interest rate cuts too long. At the same time, Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's Vice Chair for Supervision, mentioned that recent inflation numbers suggest achieving the 2% inflation goal could be challenging.

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Canadian Dollar Dips Amid US Inflation Concerns



The Canadian dollar dropped below 1.35 against the USD, getting close to the almost two-month low of 1.345 it hit on February 9th. This happened because persistent inflation in the US made people think the Federal Reserve might not lower interest rates soon, which made the US dollar stronger.

This drop comes after the Canadian dollar had improved last week, thanks to positive job reports in Canada. In January, Canada added almost 40,000 jobs, and nearly 20,000 fewer people were unemployed, bringing the unemployment rate down for the first time since December 2022. This was a sign of hope amid growing concerns that high-interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC) are slowing down the economy, even as the threat of rising inflation continues.

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GBPJPY Breaks January Record: Trading Above 188.8 Support


Solid ECN - The GBPJPY currency pair trades above the 188.8 support after it broke the January all-time high on Tuesday. As seen in the GBPJPY 4-hour chart, the primary trend is bullish, but the pair bounced from 190.0, perhaps to test the blue trendline, which acts as double support to the price.

Interestingly, the technical indicators show signs of divergence, which can be interpreted as the beginning of a consolidation phase or a trend reversal. Therefore, the uptrend would continue if the GBPJPY price can maintain its position above the 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement level.

On the other hand, if the price falls below the Fibo level mentioned above, the consolidation phase might extend to the 50% Fibonacci level, which is backed up by the Ichimoku cloud.

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Swiss Franc Hits 2-Month Low Amid Low Inflation


Solid ECN - The Swiss franc fell below 0.88 against the US dollar in February, hitting its lowest point in over two months, following an unexpectedly low inflation report. This report supported those in the Swiss National Bank who favor less aggressive monetary policy. In January, Switzerland's consumer price index increased by 1.3% compared to the previous year, missing the expected increase of 1.7% and marking the lowest rise over two years.

This was also the seventh month in a row that inflation stayed under the SNB's preferred maximum of 2%. The drop in inflation came even as there were expectations for higher figures amidst the country's gradual removal of electricity subsidies and adjustments to the value-added tax system. This led to increased speculation that the SNB might reduce its key interest rate sometime in the year's first half, possibly as early as March. Additionally, the franc's value was further lowered as the SNB grew its foreign exchange reserves in January for the second consecutive month, signaling a recovery from a continuous decrease over the last two years, bringing the reserves to their lowest in seven years.