Market Update by Solidecn.com

[Solid ECN]

S&P 500 - Index strengthens ahead of Fed meeting


Last week, analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicted growth of quotations within 10.0% if inflation in the US is lower than the forecast, but the asset was able to strengthen only by 2.2%. However, consumer prices increased in November by 7.1%, lower than October's growth of 7.7%, virtually guaranteeing a softening of the “hawkish” rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve. The meeting will take place this evening, and analysts expect the regulator to raise interest rates by 50.0 basis points to 4.50%: this signals that the agency is interested in a sharp tightening of monetary policy, and companies that are highly dependent on the cost borrowing, learn that their debt load will not be sharply increased once again.





The trading instrument continues the local corrective trend and forms an ascending corridor on the daily chart, rising toward the resistance line, and the technical indicators keep a buy signal.


Resistance levels: 4090, 4310 | Support levels: 3990, 3830

[Solid ECN]

Crude oil price faces solid resistance


Crude oil price’s rally stopped at 75.63, which formed solid resistance against the price, accompanied by witnessing overbought signals through stochastic that might press on the price to rebound bearishly, while the EMA50 supports the price positively.





Therefore, the contradiction between the technical factors makes us prefer to stay aside until we get clearer signal for the next trend, noting that breaching 75.63 will lead the price to achieve additional bullish correction that its next target reaches 78.93, while breaking 74.85 will put the price under negative pressure that its targets begin by testing 74.05 followed by 72.60 levels.


The expected trading range for today is between 73.80 support and 77.30 resistance.

[Solid ECN]

Gold price resumes the bullish trend


Gold price ended yesterday above 1810 level, to open the way to achieve more gains in the upcoming sessions, as it resumes the main bullish trend within the bullish channel that has positive targets that start at 1838.1 and extend to 1900. Therefore, we expect to witness more rise on the intraday and short term basis, noting that breaking 1810 will stop the positive scenario and press on the price to test the bullish channel’s support line around 1784.50 before any new attempt to rise.





The expected trading range for today is between 1795 support and 1835 resistance.

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Chart of the day - GBPUSD


GBPUSD pair pulled back slightly today as traders digested latest economic data from Great Britain. Yesterday’s UK jobs report showed the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.7% in the August-to-October period, while average earnings rose by a stronger-than-expected 6.1%, however it also did indicate a slowdown in hiring as businesses brace for a difficult start of 2023. Monday's data had shown the UK economy grew more than anticipated in October, however UK Chancellor Hunt warned that the situation could get worse before it gets better. Today's figures showed that UK inflation fell more than expected in November, cementing expectations of a 50 bps move from BoE tomorrow. Also comments from Governor Bailey may provide more details as to the way forward and cause some market movements on Thursday.


Of course the pair may face a spike in volatility in the evening, following Fed interest rate decision. The US central bank is expected to moderate its aggressive tightening campaign but point to a higher peak for rates. Traders will be closely monitoring Fed Chair Powell’s press conference which will take place after the rates announcement for guidance on futures rate hikes.





From a technical point of view, the GBPUSD pair continues to oscillate around local support at 1.2355 waiting for a catalyst for another big move. Should break lower occur, downward move may deepen towards next support at 1.2150 which is marked with previous price reactions and 100 EMA (purple line). In case of a morendovish FED, the pair may retest recent high at 1.2450.

[Solid ECN]

NZDUSD - Growth is possible.


On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) formed, a downward correction ended as the wave (B), and the development of the wave (C) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (C) is forming, within which the wave (iii) of i has formed, a local correction has ended as the wave (iv) of i, and the wave (v) of i is developing.


If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will grow to the area of 0.66 – 0.67. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6359.

[Solid ECN]

Gold price resumes the bullish trend


Gold price ended yesterday above 1810 level, to open the way to achieve more gains in the upcoming sessions, as it resumes the main bullish trend within the bullish channel that has positive targets that start at 1838.1 and extend to 1900. Therefore, we expect to witness more rise on the intraday and short term basis, noting that breaking 1810 will stop the positive scenario and press on the price to test the bullish channel’s support line around 1784.50 before any new attempt to rise.





The expected trading range for today is between 1795 support and 1835 resistance.

[Solid ECN]

AUDUSD - Growth is possible.


On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) formed, a downward correction ended as the second wave (2), and the third wave (3) develops, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) forms. Now, the wave (iii) of i is developing, within which the wave v of (iii) is developing.


If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will grow to the area of 0.7040 – 0.7142. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6584.

[Solid ECN]

ETHUSD - Developers announced the date of the Shanghai fork


Currently, the market is in a state of uncertainty, as the negative consequences associated with the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange are balanced by positive monetary factors and decisions on further updates of the Ethereum network. At the end of last week, the developers announced that the Shanghai fork, containing the possibility of withdrawing funds blocked in the Beacon Chain, is scheduled for March next year, which greatly reassured investors. The fact is that at the moment more than 15.5M ETH users are blocked in the Beacon Chain network, which is about 12.9% of the total volume of tokens, but there has not been accurate information on the timing of their withdrawal so far.


Investors are also waiting for the US Fed's interest rate decisions. In the event that the November inflation data confirm a further slowdown in price growth, the regulator will certainly slow down the pace of monetary policy tightening, and may think about temporarily suspending the adjustment of the value to assess the consequences of measures already taken to combat inflation, which may weaken the position of the US currency against its main competitors. Otherwise, the decline in quotations will be able to resume.





The ETHUSD pair continues to move horizontally in the 1290 - 1250 channel, consolidation of the price below its lower limit, supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, will give the prospect of further decline to the levels of 1125 (Murray level [1/8]) and 1000 (Murray level [0/8]). In case of a breakout of the upper border of the channel and the upper line of the Bollinger Bands (1323), the growth up to the 1500 mark (Murray level [4/8]) is possible.


Resistance levels: 1290, 1323, 1500 | Support levels: 1250, 1125, 1000

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USDCHF - Quotes are holding in a downtrend


The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) is to release its traditional economic forecasts today. Still, investors expect them to be neutral, with third-quarter data showing a rise of 0.2% after rising by 0.1% earlier, indicating restrained dynamics, unable to influence the national currency. First, the gross domestic product (GDP) increase is curtailed by a record drop in consumer sentiment below –47.0 points for the first time since 1972. According to the latest poll, citizens do not expect improvements anytime soon and are reluctant to make large purchases amid unprecedented inflation and an uncertain outlook.





On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument continues its global decline, completing the formation of the local Triangle pattern. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal.


Resistance levels: 0.9410, 0.9550 | Support levels: 0.9310, 0.9150

[Solid ECN]

Crude oil price begins bullish correction


Crude oil price keeps rising to breach the bearish channel’s resistance by today’s open and settles above it, to start bullish correction for the entire decline that started from 92.9 areas, on its way to test 75.63 as a first positive station.





Therefore, we expect to witness more rise in the upcoming sessions, and breaching the mentioned level will extend the bullish wave to reach 78.93 areas, while breaking 73.65 represents negative factor that will stop the correctional bullish trend and press on the price to decline again.


The expected trading range for today is between 72.50 support and 76 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.