HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.
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  1. #12 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'General Settings'
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    Date: 12th June 2024.


    Market News – Steady ahead of the Big Day!




    Economic Indicators & Central Banks:


    * Asian stocks edged up, driven by the technology sector, while the US Dollar remained firm ahead of the US inflation report and Fed policy decision.
    * China’s CPI gains held above zero in May while factory-gate prices remained stuck in deflation, signalling ongoing weak demand.
    * UK GDP stagnated in April. Monthly GDP numbers came in a tad better than anticipated, with activity stagnating, rather than contracting -0.1% m/m, as Bloomberg consensus forecasts had predicted. The recovery remains uneven though.
    * The FOMC began day 1 of its 2-day meeting with the decision and the new quarterly forecasts (SEP) at 21:00 GMT following by Chair Powell’s press conference at 21:30 GMT. The Fed is universally expected to maintain a steady rate stance, leaving all of the focus on the new forecasts, Chair Powell’s press conference, and the policy statement. It is widely expected that the “dovish” dot plot from March that showed three cuts (though it was a close call for two) will be revised toward a more hawkish stance.


    Asian & European Open:


    * Treasuries steadied after rising on a solid $39 billion sale, which reflected speculation that inflation reading will help make the case for the Fed to cut rates this year.
    * The NASDAQ rebounded and advanced 0.88% into the close to another record at 17,343. Similarly the S&P500 rose 0.27% to 5375, also a new record (27th of the year).
    * A surge in Apple shares (7%) supported. The Dow slumped -0.3%, hurt by financials and industrials that overshadowed a gain in IT.
    * China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group plunged 20% after warning of losing assets.


    Financial Markets Performance:


    * The USDIndex had a good first half, rising to a high of 105.46 before fading to 105.24. However, it’s above the 105 level for a second straight session (first time since May 13,14) and the highest since early May.
    * The EURUSD was down for a fourth session at 1.0737 amid political turmoil in Europe.
    * OIL prices extended gains for a third session, with UKOIL futures up 0.5% to $82.36 a barrel and USOIL up 0.7% to $78.45 a barrel. Industry data pointed to shrinking US crude stockpiles ahead of a report from the IEA on the market outlook.
    * Gold prices edged 0.1% lower to $2,313.72 per ounce.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.

  2. #11 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'General Settings'
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    Date: 11th June 2024.


    Market News – Inflation reports dominates!


    Economic Indicators & Central Banks:


    * The selloff in Treasuries continued ahead of the FOMC decision tomorrow, though losses were moderate. Disappointment that the continued strength in the labor market will push back any easing until at least September at the earliest continued to weigh.
    * Chinese stocks dropped after traders returned from a long weekend, weighed down by weak travel spending and renewed concerns over the property sector, raising doubts about the sustainability of China’s economic recovery.
    * Developer Dexin China Holdings gets liquidation order from a Hong Kong court adding to a growing number of legal victories for creditors involving overdue debt.
    * Geopolitical risks also affected shares of electric vehicle makers as traders awaited the European Commission’s decision on provisional duties expected this week.
    * Australian business confidence turned negative in May, and conditions slipped to below-average levels, indicating that elevated interest rates and a worsening consumer outlook are weighing on the corporate sector.
    * Markets are also closely monitoring potential fallout from political upheavals in Europe.


    Asian & European Open:


    * All three major indexes closed higher on Monday, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq both hitting new records. The Dow ended the day up about 0.2%, following a modest finish to a winning week.
    The CSI 300 Index of mainland shares fell up to 1.4% after reopening from the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, while Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares were among Asia’s biggest decliners, dropping as much as 2%.
    * Apple Inc. sank despite unveiling new artificial intelligence features. The company’s suppliers also dropped after Apple’s latest AI platform was seen as disappointing.
    * Billionaire Elon Musk stated he would ban Apple devices from his companies if OpenAI’s software is integrated at the operating system level, calling it a security risk.


    Financial Markets Performance:


    * The USDIndex has caught a bid with the push back to rate cut expectations. It closed at 105.150, back with a 105 handle for the first time since May 14.
    * The EURUSD stalled at 1.0770, while GBPUSD declined slightly today after the tight labor data.
    * USOIL held the biggest jump since March ahead of an OPEC report that will provide a snapshot on the market outlook.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.

  3. #10 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'General Settings'
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    Date: 7th June 2024.


    ECB closer look: All options open for the second half of the year!


    ECB officials continue to dampen rate cut speculation, following on from Lagarde’s hawkish comments yesterday. Officials have been out in force this morning to continue stressing that the inflation outlook remains uncertain and that the central bank is not committing to a particular rate path for the rest of the year.


    The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points, but as we expected it was a “hawkish” cut that left all options open for the second half of the year. Lagarde repeatedly stressed that future decisions will be data dependent, and even refused to confirm that yesterday’s move was the first step of an easing cycle. Rate cuts in September and December are still a possibility, but not cast in stone.


    Simkus admitted that there may be more than one rate cut this year, but on the whole, the comments were designed to keep a lid on speculation that the central bank kicked off a rate cut cycle yesterday. Austria’s central bank head Holzmann went on record yesterday to confirm that he was the sole dissenter objecting to a cut yesterday, and so far the doves have been quiet, which is helping to affirm Lagarde’s hawkish message yesterday.


    Details of the Rate Cut


    The ECB delivered the first rate cut in five years and lowered key rates by 25 basis points. The deposit rate is now at 3.75% and the main refinancing rate at 4.25%. It was a “hawkish cut,” as near term inflation forecasts were revised higher, and Lagarde flagged that domestic inflation remains high. The statement stressed that the ECB is not pre-committing to a particular rate path, and the comments leave all options on the table for the second half of the year.


    Economic Activity and Forecasts


    The ECB noted the improvement in economic activity through the first quarter of the year. Lagarde also highlighted that manufacturing is showing signs of stabilization, with stronger exports expected to support growth in coming quarters. At the same time, monetary policy should be less of a drag on demand over time, according to the ECB. The new set of forecasts show GDP rising 0.9% this year, which is more than the 0.6% expected back in March. The forecast for 2025 has been revised slightly down to 1.4% from 1.5% previously, and the ECB still expects a slight acceleration to 1.6% for 2026.


    The inflation forecast for this year was raised to 2.5% from 2.3%, and the projection for 2025 was hiked to 2.2% from 2.0%. As such, inflation will fall toward the target later than previously anticipated, though the forecast for 2026 was left unchanged at 1.9%. This means the headline rate is still expected to fall below the target at the end of the forecast horizon.


    Upside Risks to Inflation


    The statement noted upside risks to the inflation outlook from wages and profits, which could be higher than currently anticipated. Geopolitical tensions and extreme weather events could also push up prices once again, according to the ECB. At the same time, the ECB acknowledged that inflation could come in lower than anticipated if monetary restrictions have more of a dampening effect than currently anticipated, or if global growth weakens more than projected.


    The press conference was mainly dedicated to driving home the point that future decisions will depend on data available at the time of the respective meeting. Lagarde even refused to confirm that the central bank has effectively kicked off an easing cycle, and said in response to a question that she wouldn’t necessarily say that the ECB started a “dialing-back process”. She suggested it is likely, but refused to confirm it, which in theory means rates could actually go up again.


    This seems unlikely, given that this move was a near unanimous decision, but its makes clear that the ECB will not cut rates at every meeting and that the outlook for the rest of the year is still very much open. The ECB still thinks that monetary policy needs to remain restrictive for the foreseeable future against the backdrop of high domestic inflation. However, as chief economist Lane suggested recently, officials will have to debate at every meeting whether the data allows the central bank to dial back the degree of restrictiveness.


    Employment and Inflation Dynamics


    Wage growth, profits, and services price inflation will remain the key numbers to watch through the rest of the year. Lagarde pointed to data on the compensation of employees, due to be released tomorrow, but also flagged that current wage agreements are often still backward looking, as they reflect attempts to compensate for the sharp rise in prices since the start of the Ukraine war. As we flagged previously, the multi-year wage agreements in Germany are a prime example of that. However, as Lagarde highlighted, the deals on the table so far show sharp increases for this year, but also imply a slowdown in wage growth in coming years.


    However, unemployment is at a record low and the number of vacancies has dropped only slightly. At the same time, service price inflation remains stubbornly high, which suggests that companies have sufficient room to pass on higher labor costs. With real disposable income rising, thanks to lower inflation and higher wages, companies could find it even easier to hike prices in the second half of the year, and yesterday’s rate cut is also likely to boost demand. In the current situation, this could add to domestic price pressures.


    Looking ahead, the only thing that is clear is that Lagarde did her best to keep expectations of back-to-back cuts under control. The chances still are that the ECB will deliver two more 25 basis point cuts in September and December, but at this point, nothing is cast in stone.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.

  4. #9 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'General Settings'
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    Date: 5th June 2024.


    US Job Vacancies Fall to Their Lowest Level In 3 Years.


    *US Job Vacancies fell to their lowest level in more than 3 years adding to fears of economic contraction.
    *This week US PMI data falls and there are now lower job vacancies. Has the US economy passed its peak and is now in a downfall?
    *Analysts advise if bond yields drop below 4.300%, yields can fall as low as 4.00% in the near term.
    *Stocks rise to a weekly high as investors predict earlier rate hikes. A pause in September has fallen to a 35.00% possibility (5.00% lower) according to the Chicago Exchange.


    USA500 – US Job Vacancies Fall to Their Lowest Level In 3 Years!


    The SNP500 on Tuesday struggled due to poor investor sentiment and fear of economic slowdown. However, the price rose due to the latest US JOLTS Job Openings which shows less job vacancies within the US economy. This is due to investors changing their view on future interest rate cuts. Investors are evaluating whether the poorer economic data will tempt the Federal Reserve to lower rates, which supports the economy and makes stocks more attractive.


    However, analysts advise a strong stock market needs a balance between the economy and monetary policy. If investors fear a recession, shareholders may opt to lower exposure to the stock market regardless of lower interest rates. In order to monitor investor sentiment, the market will continue to monitor the VIX which has risen over the past week. In addition to this, investors will also monitor if the High Low Index falls from recent highs.


    The JOLTS Job Openings has fallen from 8.49 million to 8.06 million and is 700,000 lower than the 6-month average. Investors will now give more importance to today’s ADP Employment Change and tomorrow’s Weekly Unemployment Claims. If both also significantly fall, stocks can gain upward momentum due to potentially lower rates or can collapse on recession fears. This will also depend on today’s ISM Services PMI. Analysts advise investors will ideally want to see lower employment data and a positive PMI or visa versa. We can see here there is a thin line between lower rates and a harsh landing.


    Over the past week bond yields have significantly fallen which is positive for the stock market. However, the 10-Year Treasuries are 0.013% lower now. If bond yields fall below 4.300%, the yields can fall as low as 4.000% which is known to be positive for stocks in general. Oil prices have fallen almost 9% in 5-days which could also improve sentiment and weaken inflation over the next 2-months.


    European stocks open higher as we approach the European Cash Open. However, investors will monitor the price movement after the US news releases. The SNP500’s price is currently trading above the main sentiment lines and Moving Averages which is a positive indication. Now the price is slightly lower but if it rises above $5,306.83 without forming a lower low beforehand, buy signals will become stronger.


    USDJPY – The Japanese Yen Witnesses The Largest Currency Decline!


    The day’s worst performing currency is the Japanese Yen while the best performing is the US Dollar. Even though the US Dollar is being pressured by a higher chance of lower rates, the Fed’s policy is still more competitive than most Central Banks. In addition to this, the Dollar’s safe haven element may also play a part. The exchange rate is witnessing buy signals on most indicators, but technical analysts are cautious after already seeing a 0.72% climb this morning.


    Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino stated today that officials should closely monitor yen movements due to their potential significant impact on the national economy. Consequently, currency weakness will be a crucial factor in deciding the timing and extent of the next increase in borrowing costs. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also emphasized that the regulator’s primary objective is to allow the market to set long-term interest rates while retaining the capability to scale back large-scale bond purchases in the short term.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work

    Michalis Efthymiou
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.

  5. #8 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'General Settings'
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    Date: 17th May 2024.


    Market News – Asian and European futures followed Wall Street lower.


    Economic Indicators & Central Banks:


    *The Dow topped 40,000 for the first time ever, but was unable to close with that historic handle. Concurrently, the S&P tried for its 24th record high this year but failed too.
    *The rise in Treasury yields after stronger than expected import prices, and a drumbeat from Fed officials that rates need to remain high for longer, encouraged profit taking.
    *Most Asian equity markets and European futures have followed Wall Street lower, after US data dented rate cut hikes.
    *Chinese data showing slowed consumption and a drop in home sales, although industrial production numbers looked relatively robust.
    *Japan’s core consumer inflation slowed for a 2nd month in a row in April from a year earlier, while the core consumer prices index (CPI) is expected to decelerate to 2.2% from 2.6% in March, the lowest level in 3 months, but still at or above the central bank’s 2% target for more than two years.


    Financial Markets Performance:


    *The USDIndex firmed slightly to 104.518 and up from the day’s nadir of 104.080. But it held a 104 handle for a second straight day. It traded above the 105 level from April 10 until May 15.
    *Silver has surged nearly 25% this year, outpacing Gold and becoming a top-performing commodity, though it remains relatively inexpensive compared to gold. Both metals have hit record highs due to central-bank buying and increased interest in China.
    *USOil is 0.75% higher at $79.23.


    Market Trends:


    *All three major US indexes closed slightly in the red after posting all-time highs on Wednesday.
    *The NASDAQ closed with a -0.26% decline, while the S&P500 lost -0.21%, and the Dow was off -0.1% at 39,869. It was a corrective day for Treasuries too. Bonds unwound part of their recent rally that took rates down to the lows since early April.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.

  6. #7 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'General Settings'
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    Date: 16th May 2024.


    Market News – Stagflationary Risk for Japan; Bonds & Stocks Higher.


    Economic Indicators & Central Banks:


    *Stocks and bonds gave a big sigh of relief after CPI and retail sales came in below expectations, supporting beliefs the FOMC will be able to cut rates by September.
    *The markets had positioned for upside surprises. Wall Street surged with all three major indexes climbing to fresh record highs.
    *Technical buying in Treasuries was also supportive after key rate levels were breached, sending yields to the lows since early April.
    *Fed policy outlook: there is increasing optimism for a September rate cut, according to Fed funds futures, BUT most officials say they want several months of data to be confident in their actions. Plus, while price pressures are receding, rates are still well above the 2% target, keeping policy on hold. But the market is now showing about 22 bps in cuts by the end of Q3, with some 48 bps priced in for the end of 2024.
    *Stagflationary Risk for Japan: GDP contracted much sharper than anticipated, for a 3rd quarter in a row. This is mainly due to consumer spending. The GDP deflator though came in higher than expected but still down from the previous quarter. The sharper than anticipated contraction in activity will complicate the outlook for the BoJ, and dent rate hike bets.


    Financial Markets Performance:


    *The USDIndex slumped to 103.95, the first time below the 104 level since April 9.
    *Yen benefitted significantly, with USDJPY currently at 154.35 as easing US inflation boosted bets on the Fed easing monetary policy this year, weakening USD, boosting the Yen.
    *Gold benefited from a weaker Dollar and a rally in bonds and the precious metal is trading at $2389 per ounce. At the same time, the precarious geopolitical situation in the Middle East is underpinning haven demand.
    *Oil prices rebounded slightly after the shinking of US stockpiles and the risk-on mood due to declined US Inflation. However USOil is still at the lowest level in 2 months, at 78.57.


    Market Trends:


    *The NASDAQ popped 1.4% to 16,742. The S&P500 advanced 1.17% to 5308, marking a new handle. And the Dow rose 0.88% to 39,908.
    *Treasury yields tumbled sharply too on the increasingly dovish Fed outlook. Additionally, the break of key technical levels extended the gains to the lowest levels since early April before the shocking CPI data on April 10 boosted rates.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.

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    Date: 15th May 2024.


    Market News – Treasuries rallied, NASDAQ at new high, DXY lower after PPI pop.


    Economic Indicators & Central Banks:


    *JGB yields slipped, as markets paused amid a recent bond sell-off, awaiting a crucial US inflation report expected to influence the Fed’s short-term interest rate decisions. Remember, that typically yields move inversely to bond prices.
    *US: Stronger than expected prints on PPI did not have the textbook effects on the markets. Interestingly, Treasuries and Wall Street rallied, while the US Dollar slipped. The guts of the report were not as worrisome as the headlines suggested, and the CPI is viewed as more important.
    *Global equities are set for a fresh record after a big tech-led rally in US gauges.


    Financial Markets Performance:


    *The USDIndex slumped to 104.7, EURUSD rose to 1.0830 and USDJPY drifted at the EU open below 156.
    *Gold rose almost 1% to $2358.12 per ounce, while USOIL advanced to $78.18 after shrank US stockpiles, and as traders looked ahead to a report from the International Energy Agency that’ll shed light on market balances into the second half.
    *Copper spiked to a fresh record high at $5.12 a pound after a squeeze partly due to traders playing the arbitrage between futures on Comex and the Shanghai Futures Exchange.


    Market Trends:


    *Big tech climbed, however, boosting the NASDAQ 0.75% to a new all-time high of 16,511. The S&P500 rose 0.48% to 5246. The Dow advanced 0.3%.
    *Sony shares jumped by 12% after strong earnings, a stock split and a share buyback of ¥250bn ($1.6bn).
    *Tesla gained 3.3%. Tencent Holdings surged after the company’s revenue beat estimates , while Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s slid on a profit plunge, highlighting the growing divergence between China’s twin Internet powerhouses.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.

  8. #5 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'General Settings'
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    Date: 14th May 2024.


    Market News – May 14.


    Economic Indicators & Central Banks:


    *Asian stocks and European futures kept to small ranges as focus turned to upcoming US inflation reports.
    *JGB yields surged to their highest levels in over a decade amid growing speculation that the BOJ might raise interest rates soon.
    *Former central bank executive Momma stated that the BOJ might opt to deduct its planned bond purchases next month in an effort to revive a bond market that has been largely impaired by its ongoing substantial purchases.
    *BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the importance of the market determining long-term yields independently rather than relying solely on the central bank’s actions.
    *UK wage growth remained solid amid a slowdown in the job market, providing further arguments for the BOE’s monetary policy hawks to await more concrete signs of easing inflationary pressures before considering interest rate cuts.
    *Eyes today are on producer price data in the US, followed by consumer price data the next day, which will provide insights into whether the Fed will consider interest rate cuts later in the year or postpone them until 2025.


    Financial Markets Performance:


    *The USDIndex is steady at 105 lows.
    *The Yen extended losses for an 8th day against the Greenback to a 2-week low. Currently USDJPY is at 156.45.
    *EURUSD rebounded slightly to 1.0785, however overall holds within a downwards channel with key resistance at 1.0850.
    *USOIL held steady ahead of the release of an OPEC market outlook, with traders eagerly awaiting signals regarding the extension of supply curbs. Despite a decline since April, oil prices have remained relatively high this year due to ongoing supply restrictions by OPEC and its allies, with expectations that these curbs will be prolonged into the second half of the year. Currently USOIL is at $77.78.
    *Gold (-0.93%) declined further to $2338 per ounce. Copper rose at +2.46% and Platinum +0.54%.


    Market Trends:


    *The 10-year JGB yield to a 6-month high of 0.965%. The 2-year JGB yield, which closely reflects policy expectations, rose to 0.340%, its highest since June 2009. The 20-year and 30-year JGB yields also surged to their highest levels in 11 years and since July 2011, respectively.
    *FTSE100 stands by record highs, the S&P500 is close to topping March’s record high. The Nasdaq rose by 0.3%, with four of the Magnificent Seven stocks rising. The Hang Seng has added 20% in a rally that is entering a fourth week.
    *Alibaba and Tencent report earnings later today.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.

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  10. #4 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'General Settings'
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    Date: 13th May 2024.


    Market News – Stock markets traded mixed; Flat USD ahead of US CPI.


    Economic Indicators & Central Banks:


    *Japanese government bond yields surged to multi years highs after the BOJ’s unexpected move to decrease the quantity of bonds it typically purchases during routine operations, signaling a more hawkish stance to the markets.
    *BOJ Kato stated that it’s natural that monetary policy will revert to positive interest rates, while BOJ Governor Ueda signalled the potential for multiple rate hikes ahead.
    *Chinese authorities have kicked off plans to sell $140bn of long-dated bonds on Friday, in order to support investment in key areas and reinforce economic momentum in the second quarter amid the country’s lengthy property crisis.
    *US government plans to raise tariffs to a raft of Chinese exports were weighing on sentiment.
    *BlackRock stated: The Yen’s weakness is turning foreign investors away from Japanese stocks.


    Financial Markets Performance:


    *The USDIndex is steady at 105 lows, at 105.58 ahead of US CPI on Wednesday, while USDJPY is holding at 155.80, after retesting May’s high at 155.96.
    *EURUSD steady above 1.0750 as the euro zone prepares for an inflation reading of its own on Friday.
    *USOIL declined amid demand concerns and as traders looked ahead to an OPEC+ meeting on supply policy. On the supply front, the Iraqi Oil Minister initially claimed that production cuts were adequate and opposed further reductions but later deferred decisions to OPEC. Next OPEC+ meeting: June 1. Currently USOIL is at $77.78.
    *Gold corrected to $2349 per ounce, from $2380 highs.


    Market Trends:


    *Asian stocks fluctuate between gains and losses, as sentiment was impacted by disappointing Chinese economic data alongside optimism amid reports indicating that the country plans to initiate the sale of ultra-long bonds.
    *European markets are also narrowly mixed in opening trade, while US futures are slightly higher.
    *The NASDAQ is outperforming. Bonds are finding buyers and the 10-year Treasury yield is down -1.0 bp, while Bund and Gilt yields have corrected -1.3 bp and -2.3 bp in early trade.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.

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    Date: 10th May 2024.


    The BoE To Cut Rates In September. US Employment Data Falters!


    * The UK economy experiences its strongest growth since August 2023, with Monthly GDP increasing 0.4%, four times higher than expectations.
    * The Bank of England saw 2 out of 9 members vote for an interest rate cut. The dovish members of the BoE are Dr Swati and Sir Ramsden.
    * The BOE Governor, Mr Bailey, said two rate cuts are likely in 2024 as “one cut will keep us in restrictive territory”. However, he advises there is a higher chance the first cut will come in September.
    * The UK’s FTSE100 declines close to 0.20% as the UK’s GDP reading indicates an interest cut is less likely to take place in June 2024.


    GBPUSD – The UK Economy Moves Out of a Technical Recession!


    The GBPUSD over the past 24-hours has been influenced by three factors: the monetary committee’s votes, the Governor’s guidance and the UK’s latest GDP figure. The GBPUSD first fell to a 2-week low due to the higher number of votes for an interest rate cute. However, the GBPUSD has since risen 0.77%. Therefore, how can traders view the price movement and the latest developments?


    A large factor influencing the pricing is whether the regulator is likely to adjust its policy in June or September. A rate cut in September would support the GBP as it would keep rates higher for longer compared to the Eurozone and other competitors. The Monetary Policy Committee votes indicates the BoE is almost ready to cut rates. The Governor also said they wish to steadily move away from a restrictive policy. In the UK a restrictive monetary policy is 5.00% and above.


    The reason for the price increase is the Governor indicating that there is a higher possibility the regulator will cut in September not June. In addition to this, the strong economic growth confirmed this morning further lowers the possibility of a cut in June. This is because there is less pressure on the BoE to support a stagnated economy. Therefore, a rate cut is now likely to take place in September 2024, which is on par with the Federal Reserve’s guidance for its own policy.


    The Federal Reserve and The US Dollar


    The US Dollar on Thursday evening was considerably pressured by the Weekly Unemployment Claims, which normally has a limited affect. The US Unemployment Claims rose to 231,000, higher than predictions of 212,000 and the highest since November 2023. Therefore, the US has seen lower NFP data, higher unemployment rate and now higher unemployment claims. This has investors questioning if the US employment sector may be weakening for the first time since raising interest rates. If so, the Federal Reserve may consider a cut in July. Currently, the CM Exchange’s tool shows a 30.8% chance of a cut in July, if this figure rises, the US Dollar could potentially weaken.


    GBPUSD – Technical Analysis


    Technical analysis indicates the price of the GBPUSD may rise to the previous resistance levels between 1.25650 and 1.25936. However, if the market continues to price a Fed rate cut in September, it is improbable the exchange rate will reach the resistance level at 1.26340. The exchange rate currently trades above most trend lines such as the 75-Bar EMA and is above the 60.00 mark on most RSI periods. The price has slightly retraced since rising after the GDP announcement. For this reason, the buy signal has turned into a neutral. However, if the price rises above 1.25362, the buy signal may materialize again.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Michalis Efthymiou
    Market Analyst
    HMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.

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