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GBPUSD Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD currency pair, a significant barometer in the foreign exchange market, is currently navigating a downward trajectory. It's trading beneath the previously breached support level at 1.277 and is presently testing the lower boundary of the declining channel. This trend is further substantiated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is lingering in the oversold territory as shown in the GBPUSD 4-hour timeframe.


Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, the oversold market conditions suggest a potential for the pair to undergo a correction. This could lead to a rise towards the middle band of the declining channel or a retest of the previous support area. In this context, the levels of 1.227 and 1.232 present attractive entry points for initiating short trades on the GBPUSD. These levels offer a balance of risk and reward for traders looking to capitalize on the ongoing bearish momentum.

However, if the lower band of the declining channel fails to sustain the price, a drop to the 1.215 support level becomes a likely scenario. This potential downturn underscores the importance of risk management in trading, particularly in volatile market conditions.

In conclusion, while the GBPUSD market is currently bearish, there are signs of a potential correction. Traders should remain vigilant and look for further confirmation before making any decisions. This analysis serves as a guide for understanding the current market dynamics and potential future scenarios.

[HubuFX]

GBPUSD Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD currency pair has experienced a significant event: it has broken through the key support level of 1.2318 and is currently testing this level. The bearish trend is expected to continue, with the target set at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which is around 1.2087.

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis

Thursday sees the AUDUSD pair continue its downward trend for the second day in a row, moving away from a nearly three-week high just above the 0.6500 mark. The pair has now hit a low of around 0.6400, a level not seen in over a week. This drop is largely due to the strong performance of the US Dollar (USD).

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the USD against other major currencies, is nearing a six-month high from last week. This is thanks to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) positive outlook. As expected, the Fed kept interest rates at a 22-year high of between 5.25%-5.5% after a two-day policy meeting. The Fed also hinted at another possible rate hike in 2023 due to ongoing inflation concerns.

According to the 'dot-plot', rates are expected to peak between 5.5%-5.75% by the end of this year, with the benchmark rate predicted to be 5.1% next year. This suggests only two rate cuts in 2024, compared to the four previously projected. This positive outlook has led to increased selling in the US fixed-income market, pushing the yield on the two-year government bond to its highest level since July 2006. The 10-year US Treasury yield has also hit a 16-year high, further boosting the USD.

Higher rates in the US have reignited worries about economic challenges due to rising borrowing costs, reducing the appeal of riskier assets. This is reflected in the weaker performance of equity markets, which is benefiting the safe-haven USD. Additionally, China's cautious approach to introducing more stimulus measures and speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may have ended its rate-hiking cycle are driving investors away from the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar (AUD).



Investors are now awaiting the release of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Existing Home Sales data from the US. These releases, along with the performance of US bond yields and overall risk sentiment, will likely influence the USD and the AUDUSD pair. However, given the current situation, it seems more likely that the AUD/USD pair will continue to fall."

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US Federal Reserve Holds

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve, also known as the Fed, decided to keep the policy rate, or federal funds rate, steady at 5.25%-5.5%. This decision was expected by the market and occurred after their September policy meeting.

The Fed's policy statement highlighted that the economy is still growing steadily. Although job growth has slowed down, it remains robust. The Fed also emphasized that inflation is still high and they are closely monitoring the risks associated with it. According to the updated Summary of Economic Projections, also known as the dot plot, the policymakers are predicting one more rate hike of 25 basis points before the year ends.

The US Dollar is showing resilience against its competitors following the Fed's rate decision and the updated dot plot. As of now, the US Dollar Index remains steady for the day at 105.15. Market trends indicate that the Fed's decision to keep the policy rate unchanged is already factored in. However, investors are still considering a nearly 40% chance of an additional 25 basis points interest rate hike by the end of the year, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool.

Analysts at Wells Fargo anticipate a more positive outlook in the dot plot: "The FOMC is likely to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 5.25%-5.50% at its meeting on September 20."

"We predict that the September SEP will present a more positive forecast for the US economy compared to the last SEP in June. Specifically, we expect the FOMC to increase its forecast for real GDP growth this year while slightly lowering its inflation outlook. We don't anticipate significant changes in the median dots for 2024 and 2025, although some of the higher dots may be slightly adjusted."

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Gold Technical Analysis:

The XAUUSD pair, which represents the trading relationship between gold and the US dollar, is currently positioned below a descending channel. This indicates that the market sentiment is leaning towards the bearish side as long as the price of gold remains beneath the trendline. Investors and traders are closely monitoring the $1940 price level, which has proven to be a significant barrier for the bulls. If the bullish market participants are unable to push the price above this level, it could signal a lack of buying pressure in the market. This could potentially lead to a shift in market sentiment, causing the price of gold to retreat.



In such a scenario, the next key level to watch would be the $1,894 support level. This price point could serve as a safety net for the gold price, providing a platform from which it could potentially bounce back. However, if the price breaks below this level, it could trigger further selling pressure, leading to a deeper correction in the gold price.

[HubuFX]

Analyzing Bitcoin's Potential Rise to $28,500

Bitcoin is currently in the process of testing the pivot point at $27,129 for the second consecutive day. Given the bullish momentum that's building up, it's highly probable that BTCUSD will close above this pivot point in the upcoming trading session. This bullish sentiment is further confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, which has recently flipped above the level of 50, indicating a strong upward price movement driven by the bulls. If this scenario holds true, Bitcoin could potentially set its sights on the $28,500 mark as its next target.

[HubuFX]

EURUSD Technical Analysis

The EURUSD currency pair is currently hovering around a crucial pivot point, situated at 1.069. This pivot area is of significant interest to traders as it often acts as a reliable supply zone for bearish market participants. As such, it's not surprising to see the market trading in a relatively narrow range around this level.

However, the market's direction is not solely determined by technical factors. Fundamental events, such as policy announcements from influential institutions like the Federal Reserve, can cause significant shifts in market sentiment and price action. In this case, the market is eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy announcements scheduled for this Wednesday.




Given the potential impact of these announcements, many traders are choosing to adopt a cautious approach, refraining from placing substantial bets until they have a clearer picture of the Fed's stance. Consequently, we can expect the EURUSD pair to continue trading within its current range until the market receives further updates from the Federal Reserve. This careful, anticipatory behavior underscores the importance of balancing technical analysis with an understanding of key economic events in successful forex trading.

[HubuFX]

Bitcoin at the 27.315 Resistance: What RSI and Candlestick Patterns Tell Us

Bitcoin has successfully reached the resistance level of 27.315 and is currently undergoing testing at this level. The BTCUSD 4-hour chart reveals that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is in the overbought zone, suggesting a potential pause in Bitcoin's upward trend.



Given the RSI signal, it's recommended to wait for the candle to close within the 4-hour timeframe. The shape of the candlestick can offer valuable insights into market activity.

Specifically, we're on the lookout for a long wick candlestick, a doji, or an inverted hammer. These candlestick patterns could potentially indicate a trend reversal scenario, adding another layer to our market analysis.

[HubuFX]

GBPUSD Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD currency pair is currently trending downwards, with the RSI indicator moving away from the oversold zone of 30. The pivot and resistance point is around the 1.245 zone, which is a key area for bearish traders to sell the currency pair. Therefore, it's important to monitor this pivot area and look for price action or candlestick patterns before making a trade decision. This information could be beneficial for those interested in forex trading, particularly with the GBPUSD pair.

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The WTI Crude Oil Odyssey: From $85 and Beyond

The possibility of more growth in US oil production is quite limited. The number of oil drilling machines has dropped by 140 this year, which is a 20% decrease since the start of the year.

The amount of gasoline stored in the US is at the lowest it's been in the past five years. It's also about 5% less than the average amount stored over the past five years, which means people are still using a lot of gasoline.

Goldman Sachs says that Saudi Arabia needs the price of oil to be around $85 per barrel to balance its budget. It's important to remember that Saudi Aramco is planning to sell more shares in December. So, we can expect pressure to keep oil prices high until then. But for the UAE, it's closer to $50 per barrel. For a long time, Russia needed the price of oil to be between $40 and $50 per barrel to balance its budget. But now, because of the ongoing war, it needs the price to be as high as $115 per barrel. Last year, when prices were this high, we saw a big drop in demand.

• The EIA predicts that demand for oil will reach its highest point before 2030.
• There's a big increase in speculative interest in the oil market. Net positioning is already above the average of the past two years.
• The next big hurdle for WTI oil is around $90 per barrel.

Examining the WTI Crude Oil daily chart, the uptrend persists post a minor correction and $85 test. The RSI indicator is in the overbought zone. HubuFX analysts advise retail traders with small balances to wait for a correction to around $84 for better long trade entry points.