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The Calm Before the Storm: Anticipating the ECB Meeting

The European single currency is currently stable, maintaining a level above 1.07. This stability is due to the low volatility in the market today, as investors are hesitant to make significant moves before the European Central Bank's (ECB) meeting on Thursday.

On Friday, the currency's performance was as expected. Despite a temporary dip below 1.07, it managed to avoid major losses and showed signs of steadiness. There were no additional losses in the international stock markets, which means there's no current trigger that could lead to further losses for the European currency.

This week is crucial as we anticipate one of the most contentious ECB meetings in recent months on Thursday. Opinions are divided on whether ECB President Lagarde will announce a 25 basis point increase in key interest rates.



Today's agenda is quite light, and tomorrow's doesn't hold much of significance either. The focus now shifts to Wednesday, when the U.S. Consumer Inflation rate will be announced, and of course to Thursday's ECB meeting.

In anticipation of these significant events, it's likely that we'll see a repeat of Friday's market behavior, with limited fluctuations. The exchange rate is expected to hover around the 1.07 level without much deviation.

[HubuFX]

GBPUSD Analysis: A Dance with the 1.2500 Mark

The GBPUSD pair is experiencing a slight increase during the Asian session on Friday, moving away from its three-month low. Despite this, it remains below the 1.2500 mark and traders should exercise caution before betting on a bullish scenario. With US Treasury bond yields declining and stock markets stable, traders are hesitant to bet on USD bulls. This is providing some support to the GBPUSD pair, though the USD remains strong due to expectations of high interest rates from the Fed.

Traders anticipate another 0.25% rate increase by the end of the year, supported by strong US economic data such as the Weekly Jobless Claims on Thursday. This should boost US bond yields and the USD, while expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) is nearing the end of its rate hikes could weigh on the British Pound and limit gains for the GBPUSD pair.



BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated on Wednesday that the central bank is close to ending its rate increases, though further hikes may still be necessary due to high inflation. In the absence of significant economic news from either the UK or the US, it may be prudent for traders to wait for further buying momentum before confirming a near-term bottom for the GBPUSD pair.

[HubuFX]

EURUSD Analysis: Markets Surprised by Q2 GDP Fails

The Eurozone’s Q2 2023 GDP was revised, surprising markets that had expected 0.6% growth. Instead, the GDP saw a small increase of 0.1%, falling short of the projected 0.3%. This was due to slow domestic consumption and decreasing exports. Despite this, the EURUSD is gaining, even though expectations for a rate hike from the ECB next week are dropping.



The EURUSD currency pair is currently trading within a declining channel and is closing below the 1.072 resistance level. This suggests that the decline is likely to continue, with the next target being the 1.065 supply zone.

[HubuFX]

Fed Rate Hike Speculation Rattles Markets

The strong ISM data has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might raise interest rates again before the year ends and keep them high for a while. The US 2-year return is now over 5%, and the 10-year return is around 4.30%, meaning the returns you get from investing in US government bonds are going up. The 2-year return is now above 5%, and the 10-year return is about 4.30%. When these returns rise, it can affect the economy.

The US dollar is getting stronger, and it's moving towards the 105 level. When it reaches 105.40, traders will decide if it's going to change from being weak this year to being strong in the medium term. But this is affecting countries around the world. Japan, in particular, is worried and says they might do something to prevent their currency, the yen, from losing value.



In the stock market, the S&P 500 didn't do well because of the rising US returns. It went below 4500 points and a 50-day average that shows market trends. The Nasdaq 100 also dropped because Apple's stock fell more than 3.50%. This happened because of a report that Chinese government workers can't bring iPhones and other foreign-made devices to work. People see this as a sign of the ongoing trade and technology disputes between the US and China."

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[HubuFX]

EURUSD Analysis: Exploring the Possibility of a Bullish Reversal

In July, the number of orders for German-made goods decreased significantly, suggesting that Germany’s manufacturing industry is facing challenges. The decrease was 11.7%, which was more than expected. In the same month, Germany’s Industrial Orders also decreased by 10.5% compared to the previous year, while in June it had increased by 3.3%. This data indicates that the German manufacturing sector may require support to recover.

The EURUSD currency pair is currently trading in a declining channel and recently visited the 1.071 support level. At the same time, the RSI indicator was hovering in the oversold area. Interestingly, a bullish engulfing pattern has emerged in the EURUSD 4-hour time frame. As a result, we have two signals for entering a form of correction in the EURUSD or even a trend reversal. However, the reversal is unlikely since it requires optimistic fundamental news for the Euro zone.



On a technical standpoint, support is at 1.071 and due to the bullish engulfing candlestick pattern and the RSI indicator exiting the oversold area, there is a high possibility for the pair to test the recent broken support which acts as resistance around 1.076 followed by the 1.083 pivot.

[HubuFX]

GBPUSD Recovery Uncertain as UK Factory Activities Decline

The GBPUSD is trying to recover from 1.2600, but its recovery is uncertain as UK factory activities keep declining. Despite this, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to raise interest rates for the 15th time in a row this month. This has put pressure on UK firms, who have shifted their focus to stabilizing margins and reducing costs by cutting inventories and their workforce.

The GBPUSD pair is trying to make a significant comeback after a severe sell-off, which was caused by growing recession concerns. However, the recovery effort seems fragile as UK factory activities are being affected by the BoE’s higher interest rates.



In today's trading session, the GBPUSD currency pair is making a concerted effort to correct the losses it incurred on Friday. Currently, the GBPUSD is trading near a key resistance level and the pivot zone at 1.263. Given the prevailing market conditions, the outlook for this currency pair is a downtrend. Consequently, for the bears to maintain this bearish scenario, it's crucial that they keep the pair below the 1.263 pivot point.

On the other hand, if the bulls manage to close above the 1.265 resistance level, it could potentially invalidate the current bearish scenario. In such a situation, we could see the GBPUSD surge towards the 1.27 resistance level, and possibly even extend towards 1.28.

[HubuFX]

WTI Oil Prices Soar: Russia and Saudi Arabia Cut Production

WTI oil prices are rising due to falling crude oil inventories and production cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia. However, concerns about an economic slowdown in China may limit further gains. Oil traders are watching upcoming reports, including the Chinese Caixin Services PMI and the US ISM Services PMI.

WTI is the US benchmark for crude oil prices. On Monday, it was trading around $85.2, close to its YTD high of $85.52. WTI prices are also supported by a significant drop in US crude oil stocks.

Russia agreed with OPEC+ to limit oil output, with details to be announced later this week. Russia is expected to cut its oil exports, while Saudi Arabia is expected to continue its voluntary oil cut. These developments helped WTI prices reach a YTD high on Friday.

However, concerns about an economic slowdown in China may limit further gains for WTI. Moody’s recently revised its 2024 GDP forecast for China downward. Oil traders are watching upcoming reports, including the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change data.




WTI Crude Oil recently broke through the $84 resistance level and is currently trading near $85.8. The RSI indicator is hovering near the overbought zone, suggesting a correction may be due. The $84 support area offers a reasonable entry point for buyers.

Overall, the outlook for WTI Crude Oil remains positive, but traders should remain cautious and keep an eye on key indicators and market developments.

[HubuFX]

EURUSD Analysis: Price is Steady as Traders Awaits Important Data

At present, the EURUSD rate is holding steady, as the market eagerly awaits an important announcement about US job figures. However, this calm was disrupted on Thursday when the European currency experienced a dip, effectively reversing some of its gains from earlier in the week. This downturn was anticipated, given the significant news expected to be released on Friday.

In addition to this, the European currency was dealt another blow due to disappointing retail sales figures from Germany. These figures serve as a stark reminder of the ongoing concerns surrounding the trajectory of the European economy.

Despite these challenges, the European Central Bank continues to maintain a firm stance. This is largely due to persistently high consumer prices. The tough rhetoric from the bank in response to these inflationary pressures is playing a crucial role in bolstering the value of the European currency.

Given these circumstances, it seems prudent at this point to adopt a 'wait and see' approach. With an important announcement on the horizon, it's advisable to hold off on making any major decisions until more information becomes available.




The EURUSD currency pair is currently undergoing a critical test of the 1.083 pivot point. A close examination of the 4-hour chart reveals no significant candlestick patterns, indicating a lack of clear direction for the pair.

Adding to this uncertainty, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has flipped below its signal line, suggesting a bearish outlook for the EURUSD. However, for this bearish scenario to fully materialize, it is crucial for the bears to close below the pivot line. If this occurs, their next target would be the 1.073 support level, with the decline likely to continue within the bearish channel.

On the other hand, the bulls face a strong resistance at 1.0946 and the upper band of the declining channel. In order to invalidate the bearish scenario and shift momentum in their favor, they must first escape from the channel and close above the 1.0946 resistance level.

Traders and investors would do well to closely monitor developments and be prepared to act accordingly.

[HubuFX]

Crude Oil Analysis: Strong Rise on the Price

Today’s PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data was as expected, and this helped stock prices to rise as August came to an end. Even though interest rates won’t be lowered, the fact that they won’t be raised again this year has made people want to buy more stocks. Lower bond yields have also made stocks more attractive, and they are ending the month in a better position than they were a week ago.

However, there is a potential problem. Investors are feeling more positive about the global economy, which means they think demand for oil will increase. The price of oil has gone up over the past week, and this could lead to higher inflation later in the year. If prices go up and interest rates start to rise again, this could be bad news for the stock market.



The crude oil is currently testing the $84 barrier. The Weekly chart shows the Crude Oil is trading in a range area between the $84 resistant and the $66 support. This level has been tested four times this year and the bears could decline the price every time. The bulls must close above the $84 barrier to pave the road to $92 which is likely to be seen in the coming weeks based on the current fundamental.

On the other hand, the $77 price point serves as a minor support level for crude oil. In order to maintain a bullish outlook, it is crucial that this level holds. If the price forms a bearish engulfing or a shooting star candlestick pattern near the demand zone ($84), we can expect a decline. As such, it is highly recommended to closely monitor these levels and analyze technical data to make informed decisions.