Market Update by Solidecn.com

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AUDUSD Analysis



Solid ECN – We are examining the AUD/USD chart on the 1-hour timeframe, where the current price is 0.6592. The uptrend that began in the middle of January appears weak, and the Awesome Oscillator supports this theory by clinging to the signal line in today's trading session. For the uptrend to continue, the bulls must maintain the market above the cloud and the 50% Fibonacci level. If the price holds above this mentioned level, the bulls may target the 0.6639 resistance.

Conversely, the bearish scenario appears more robust than the bullish one. The continuation of the downtrend is likely, but for this to occur, the bears must break below the 50% Fibonacci support level.

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Trend Analysis: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Shifts​

Solid ECN – In recent market movements, the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has seen a notable decrease in yield, dropping below 4.1%. This shift comes after the yield peaked at a four-week high of 4.15% last Friday. This change reflects the market's anticipation and preparation for upcoming crucial economic indicators. Investors and traders are keenly awaiting these data points better to understand the current state of the U.S. economy and to predict the Federal Reserve's subsequent monetary policy decisions.​


Key Economic Indicators on the Horizon​

This week is pivotal as several significant economic reports are due for release, drawing widespread attention. Among these are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP growth, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, and the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). These reports are crucial as they provide insights into various aspects of economic health, including consumer spending, inflation trends, and business sector confidence. The findings from these reports will play a critical role in shaping market sentiments and influencing future monetary policy.​


Federal Reserve's Rate Decision: A Balancing Act​

The market is currently in flux regarding the Federal Reserve's next move, particularly concerning interest rates. Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in March is 48%. This is a significant shift from earlier in the month when expectations for such a cut were as high as 90%. This change in market expectation underscores the delicate balance the Fed must maintain in its efforts to navigate economic challenges while striving to achieve sustainable growth and stable inflation."

This revised content provides a more detailed and original take on the topic, maintaining critical information while adding depth and context to the original content.​

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USDJPY: Bullish Trends and Fibonacci Analysis



The USDJPY pair is ranging above the 61.8% Fibonacci support. The outlook for the pair is bullish, as it is trading inside a bullish flag. However, both the RSI indicator and the Awesome Oscillator are declining. Interestingly, the ADX line is losing momentum. That said, it is likely that the consolidation phase will extend to the lower band of the flag. This level has further support from the Fibonacci support.

The 147.29 level provides a decent price for bulls to add new bets to the uptrend.

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis




Solid ECN – The pair is trading in a bullish flag pattern. However, the stochastic oscillator hovers above the overbought area. As a result, the price has tested the 50% Fibonacci level and is currently bouncing back from that level. The price will likely rise to the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance if the GBPUSD buyers maintain their position above the 50% support level.

Conversely, the bullish analysis should be invalidated if the bears cross below and stabilize the price below the 50% support level.

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NZDUSD Technical Analysis



The NZDUSD currency pair is trading around 0.61065 on Monday, which is above the 0.6087 support. The bulls' attempt to cross above the 23.6% Fibonacci level has failed in Friday's trading session. As a result, the bearish sentiment remains strong.

The ADX line is below 40, which means the market is ranging sideways. There is a possibility for the downtrend to resume if the price remains below the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance. In this scenario, the NZDUSD would experience further decline, and the next target would be 0.6053, which is inside the Ichimoku cloud.

On the flip side, if the support holds and bulls can cross above the 23.6% resistance, the price would test the upper line of the bearish channel, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci resistance.

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Swiss Franc Weakens Amid Global Monetary Shifts



Solid ECN – The Swiss franc has recently experienced a noticeable decline, falling towards 0.87 against the US dollar, marking its weakest point in a month. This movement in currency value is primarily due to a significant resurgence in the strength of the US dollar, influenced by changing market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Initially, there was speculation about imminent rate cuts by the Fed, but this sentiment has shifted, impacting currencies globally, including the Swiss franc.

In contrast to the US's monetary policy, the market anticipates that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain a more hawkish stance in the upcoming months. This expectation is grounded in the latest inflation data from Switzerland, which rose to 1.7% in December. While this inflation rate remains within the SNB's target range and aligns with their baseline forecasts, it's notably higher than market analysts predicted. This divergence suggests that the SNB might continue its current monetary policy to ensure inflation stays within manageable limits.

Adding to these economic dynamics, Thomas Jordan, the President of the SNB, has made observations regarding the Swiss franc's valuation. He notes that the existing support for the franc has significantly contributed to its strengthening, which, in turn, has been instrumental in fostering a lower inflation outlook for the country. This relationship between the currency's strength and inflation is a key factor in the SNB's monetary policy considerations.

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Weakening Yen & BOJ Policy Impact




Soldi ECN – The Japanese yen recently experienced a significant weakening, surpassing the 148 mark against the dollar and approaching its lowest value in over seven weeks. This decline prompted a response from Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, who emphasized the government's close monitoring of currency market movements. Suzuki underscored the importance of market stability and the need for currency values to align with economic fundamentals.

January saw a sharp yen depreciation, which lost approximately 5% of its value. This trend is largely attributed to investor sentiment, which increasingly doubts any near-term changes in the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy. Contributing to this outlook was the impact of a strong earthquake that struck central Japan on New Year's Day, adding to the economic challenges.

Additionally, easing inflation in Japan has reduced the immediate pressure on the BOJ to increase interest rates. Recent data indicates a noticeable decrease in Japan's headline inflation rate, which fell to a 17-month low of 2.6% in December, down from 2.8% in November. Similarly, the core inflation rate, which excludes more volatile prices, also saw a reduction, reaching an 18-month low of 2.3%.

The Bank of Japan's upcoming monetary policy decision is highly anticipated, as it will provide insights into the central bank's stance in the face of these economic developments. The BOJ's approach to monetary policy is a critical factor influencing the yen's strength and overall economic stability. As such, investors and economists will closely watch the decision, given its potential impact on Japan's economic trajectory and the broader Asian financial markets.

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