Market Update by Solidecn.com

[Solid ECN]

Bitcoin is Trying to Avoid Losing Momentum


Bitcoin is trying to hold near $17,000 despite deteriorating sentiment on stock market indices. Analyst firm Glassnode reported that the major cryptocurrency has reached several important on-chain levels.





The average of realized losses was at new historical peaks at 0.60, indicating a progressive, unprecedented sell-off in the cryptocurrency market. Historically, these levels have proven to be opportunities for accumulation and heralded an impending rally by cryptocurrency bulls. The level of losses realized by the market since 2011 has become 14 times the level of realized gains. We also see a preserved '4-year cyclicality' in relation to the previous 'cryptocurrency winters' of 2011, 2015 and 2018.





The chart shows two on-chain metrics to better represent the network's cost basis, and which have been breached in previous bear markets. Balanced price (Balanced price, blue band) is an experimental attempt to capture the 'fair' valuation of Bitcoin by measuring the difference between the value investors paid for it and the value of liquidated Bitcoins (Transferred price). The delta price (Delta price, purple band) is the difference between Bitcoin's realized capital and capitalization divided by circulating supply; the moving average refers to Bitcoin's total lifetime. In none of the previous besses did the price of Bitcoin fall below the 'Delta Price' (purple). Only for about 136 of the last 4518 BTC days was there a period where we could see the price 'touching' the balanced price. Currently, we see that both lines are between $15,500 and $12,000. Bitcoin's price briefly found itself near the balanced price after the collapse of FTX, but the bulls quickly reacted by taking the stock up. Throughout BTC's history, the balanced price has proven to be the ultimate support level for Bitcoin, below which declines have never occurred.





Bitcoin chart, M30 interval. The major cryptocurrency managed to hold the $17,000 level despite yesterday's dynamic sell-off, during which supply quickly pushed the bulls on the defensive and prevented it from reaching the $17,500 level. We also see that bitcoin continues to correlate with the NASDAQ index (yellow chart). Yesterday's declines on the indexes translated into sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry. As a result, Bitcoin has again slipped below the 200-session average (red line), and the next closest support is the levels at $16,800, where the 38.2 Fibonacci abolition of the upward wave that began in late November is located.

[Solid ECN]

NZDUSD - the American currency received a growth impetus


Thus, the report of Statistics New Zealand (Stats.nz) recorded a smooth recovery of the national real estate market: Q3 construction activity in the residential sector increased by 3.1%, and non-residential – by 4.9%, as a result of which the overall indicator increased by 3.8%. Despite the positive dynamics, inflation continues to negatively affect the cost of building maintenance: Q3 cost of maintaining residential buildings increased by 3.0%, and non-residential – by 1.5%.





On the daily chart, the trading instrument moves above the resistance line of the downward channel, approaching it from above for reverse testing, and the technical indicators maintain a stable buy signal, ignoring a possible local correction.


Resistance levels: 0.64, 0.656 | Support levels: 0.6265, 0.61

[Solid ECN]

Euro hits fresh six-month highs against dollar


Euro rose in European trade for the fourth straight session against dollar, hitting fresh six-month highs as concerns about a widening policy gap between the US and Europe fade. Dollar extended its decline after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent statements about slowing down the pace of rate hikes starting from December. EURUSD rose over 0.4% to 1.0584, the highest since June , after closing up 0.15% on Friday, the third profit in a row as risk appetite dominated markets.





European Rates


The financial markets are now expecting the European Central Bank to increase rates by 75 basis points in December instead of 50. There are strong recent incentives for the ECB to do such move according to many analysts, while the Federal Reserve is only expected to hike rates by 50 basis points this month.

[Solid ECN]

GBPUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the downward fifth wave of the higher level 5 of (V) ended, within which the wave (5) of 5 formed, and the development of the upward first wave (1) started. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (1) is developing, within which the wave iii of 3 is ending.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the local correction iv of 3, the GBPUSD pair will grow to the area of 1.259 – 1.29. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1899.

[Solid ECN]

USDCAD Achieves Strong Gains


USDCAD pair traded with strong positivity yesterday to breach 1.3500 and settles near 1.3600 barrier, to head towards achieving more expected gains in the upcoming sessions, on its ways to visit 1.3680 as a next main target. The EMA50 supports the expected rise, which will remain valid as long as 1.3500 level remains intact.





The expected trading range for today is between 1.3500 support and 1.3670 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.

[Solid ECN]

GBPUSD Technical Analysis


The GBPUSD pair shows some bearish bias now to move below 1.2300, to achieve some temporary bearish correction, waiting to get positive motive that assists to push the price to resume the expected bullish trend for today, which depends on the price stability above 1.2130, reminding you that our next main target reaches 1.2465.





The expected trading range for today is between 1.22 support and 1.24 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.

[Solid ECN]

EURUSD keeps its positive stability


The EURUSD pair ended last Friday above 1.0515 level after the mixed trades that it witnessed in the previous sessions, starting today with new bullish bias to resume the main bullish trend, approaching our first waited target at 1.0600, waiting for more rise to visit 1.0750 as a next main target. Therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain valid and active for the upcoming period, supported by the EMA50, noting that it is important to hold above 1.0515 to continue the expected rise.





The expected trading range for today is between 1.0500 support and 1.0680 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.

[Solid ECN]

EURJPY fluctuates within the bearish track


The EURJPY pair touched 140.75 level on last Friday, to rebound positively towards 42.20 and settles near the moving average 55, these factors won’t affect the bearish track by settling below 142.60 resistance line, to confirm confining trades within the negative track and wait to renew the negative attack to target the first main target at 140.25. On the other hand, breaching the mentioned resistance will confirm regaining the bullish bias by consolidating within the bullish channel again, allowing us to start suggesting the bullish trades and target 143.15 initially.





The expected trading range for today is between 142.60 and 141.1, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.

[Solid ECN]

EURCHF attempts to resume the rise


The EURCHF pair succeeded to provide new positive close above the moving average 55 at 0.9845, to confirm its surrender to the domination of the suggested bullish bias and approach the first target at 0.99. Note that stochastic continuous positive momentum will provide additional chance to record additional gains that might extend towards 0.9935 followed by 1.0 in the medium term period.





The expected trading range for today is between 0.9865 and 0.9935, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.

[Solid ECN]

Crude Oil - A fall is possible.


On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) formed, and a downward correction develops as the second wave (2), within which the wave А of (2) forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level v of A is developing, within which the wave (iii) of v has formed, a local correction has ended as the wave (iv) of v, and the wave (v) of v is developing.


If the assumption is correct, the price of the asset will fall to the area of 67 – 52.25. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 83.58.