Market Update by Solidecn.com

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BTCUSD - the decision of the US Federal Reserve will determine the dynamics of "digital gold"


Last week, the BTCUSD pair fell to the 16700 area but then won back the losses and rose to 17200, where it has been trading over the past few sessions.


The cryptocurrency market remains uncertain: the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange is putting pressure on it, but monetary factors prevent a significant decrease in quotes. The liquidation of several large digital projects at once in six months caused serious damage to the sector, expressed in the loss of confidence in it and a decrease in investment. Thus, according to a survey of American citizens conducted by the CNBC channel, by the end of the year, the number of respondents who had a positive attitude towards digital assets adjusted to 8.0% from 19.0%, and after the Terraform and FTX bankruptcies, the number of respondents who were strongly negative about cryptocurrencies, rose from 25.0% to 43.0%. The situation with FTX did not go unnoticed by the authorities, which creates the possibility of tightening control over the activities of such sites, restraining the activity of its participants. State regulators are already checking messages for unfair advertising, and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has required national businesses to publicly disclose the ownership of digital assets and report transactions with cryptocurrency market participants.


However, the negative fundamentals did not contribute to a sharp downward correction, as investors hope that the "hawkish" rhetoric of the US Fed will soften in the face of an emerging slowdown in price growth, which may cause the dollar to weaken against its main competitors. This week, analysts expect two major events – the publication of November inflation data and a meeting of the US regulator: if the consumer price index declines again, a decrease in interest rate growth to 50 basis points will become inevitable, and in the future, a short-term break in tightening of the monetary policy will become possible.





The trading instrument is near the resistance zone 17500 – 17830 (Murrey [6/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%), the breakout of which will give the prospect of further growth to 19100 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%), 20000 (Murrey [8/8], Fibonacci retracement 50.0%). After the breakdown of the middle line of Bollinger bands around 16800, the decline may resume to 15700 (the area of November lows), 15000 (Murrey [4/8]), and 13750 (Murrey [3/8]).


Technical indicators signal a high probability of correction: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are reversing upwards, and MACD is decreasing in the negative zone.


Resistance levels: 17830, 19100, 20000 | Support levels: 16800, 15700, 15000, 13750

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GBPUSD - Growth is possible.


On the daily chart, the downward fifth wave of the higher level 5 of (V) ended, within which the wave (5) of 5 formed, and the development of the upward first wave (1) started. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (1) is forming, within which the wave iii of 3 has ended, and a local correction is forming as the wave iv of 3.


If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will grow to the area of 1.2590 – 1.2900. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1899.

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EURUSD - Growth is possible.


On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level А ended, within which the fifth wave (5) of А formed, and the development of the upward wave B started. Now, the first entry wave 1 of (А) of B is forming, within which the third wave of the lower level iii of 1 is developing.


If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will grow to the area of 1.0790–1.1196. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0280.

[Solid ECN]

Oil under pressure again after Democrats initiative disclosure


A while ago we saw a recovery in the oil market due to the Keystone pipeline spill, for which a federal investigation has already been launched. However, oil started its downward movement after markets circulated reports indicating that some senators in Congress have come up with a new initiative to increase taxation on 'Big Oil' companies in order to boost budget revenues. In addition to increasing taxation, the senators want to push oil companies to dramatically increase production. Politicians are clearly concerned about pro-inflationary increases in US oil prices. As a result, 'black gold' has come under pressure again and is giving back much of its earlier gains.





OIL.WTI chart, M30 interval


At the same time, oil companies continue to gain almost completely ignoring the initiative of politicians. Shares of Chevron (CVX.US), Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US, yellow chart) and Exxon Mobil (XOM.US, purple chart) opened today with an upward gap, with the stocks maintaining bullish momentum.

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GBPUSD needs positive momentum


The GBPUSD pair shows some slight bearish bias now to move around 1.2200 level, affected by stochastic negativity, while the EMA50 continues to support the price from below, to keep the chances valid to continue the expected bullish trend on the intraday and short term basis, which its next target located at 1.2345. Note that breaking 1.2130 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to start bearish correction that its targets begin by visiting 1.1925 areas.





The expected trading range for today is between 1.2120 support and 1.2290 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.

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EURUSD - The EU economy shows slight growth


Thus, according to November data, the growth of Q3 gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to 0.3%, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 0.2%, and the annual rate slowed to 2.3% from 4.2% earlier, according to preliminary estimates at 2.1%, helped by an increase in employment by 0.3% from an estimated 0.2%. Thus, employment in the region increases by 1.8% YoY and leads to an increase in the overall level of the indicator to 164.499K from 164.475K a quarter earlier.





On the daily chart, the trading instrument continues its corrective growth and is confidently holding above the resistance line of the local ascending corridor, and the technical indicators maintain a stable upward signal.


Resistance levels: 1.0590, 1.0780 | Support levels: 1.0440, 1.0240

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NZDUSD - Growth is possible.


On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) formed, a downward correction ended as the wave (B), and the wave (C) develops. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (C) is forming, within which the wave (iii) of i has formed, and a local correction is developing as the wave (iv) of i.


If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will grow to the area of 0.6500 – 0.6600. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6149.

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AUDUSD - Growth is possible.


On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) formed, a downward correction ended as the second wave (2), and the third wave (3) develops, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) forms. Now, the wave (iii) of i and the wave v of (iii) are developing.


If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will grow to the area of 0.6916 – 0.7142. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6584.

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USDJPY - Trading in a local downtrend


Thus, the average salary compared to 2021 added only 1.8%, while last month, it increased by 2.1%, and analysts predicted a continuation of the positive trend to 2.0%. The Household Expenditure Index slowed to 1.1% in October from 1.8% a month earlier, which led to a decrease in the annual rate to 1.2% from 2.3% in the previous period, while the total income of employees in the form of wages increased by 1.8%, down from 2.2% a month earlier.





On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving in a local downward corridor, and the technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal.


Support levels: 135.5, 131.4 | Resistance levels: 138.9, 142.2

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EURUSD crawls downwards

The EURUSD pair trades with calm negativity to move away from 1.0515 level, to hint continuing the decline on the intraday basis, targeting visiting 1.0425 followed by 1.0285 after breaking the previous level. Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that failing to break 1.0425 will lead the price to build bullish wave and attempt to resume the correctional bullish trend again.



The expected trading range for today is between 1.0360 support and 1.0520 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.