Market Update by Solidecn.com

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ETHUSD - Developers announced the date of the Shanghai fork


Currently, the market is in a state of uncertainty, as the negative consequences associated with the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange are balanced by positive monetary factors and decisions on further updates of the Ethereum network. At the end of last week, the developers announced that the Shanghai fork, containing the possibility of withdrawing funds blocked in the Beacon Chain, is scheduled for March next year, which greatly reassured investors. The fact is that at the moment more than 15.5M ETH users are blocked in the Beacon Chain network, which is about 12.9% of the total volume of tokens, but there has not been accurate information on the timing of their withdrawal so far.


Investors are also waiting for the US Fed's interest rate decisions. In the event that the November inflation data confirm a further slowdown in price growth, the regulator will certainly slow down the pace of monetary policy tightening, and may think about temporarily suspending the adjustment of the value to assess the consequences of measures already taken to combat inflation, which may weaken the position of the US currency against its main competitors. Otherwise, the decline in quotations will be able to resume.





The ETHUSD pair continues to move horizontally in the 1290 - 1250 channel, consolidation of the price below its lower limit, supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, will give the prospect of further decline to the levels of 1125 (Murray level [1/8]) and 1000 (Murray level [0/8]). In case of a breakout of the upper border of the channel and the upper line of the Bollinger Bands (1323), the growth up to the 1500 mark (Murray level [4/8]) is possible.


Resistance levels: 1290, 1323, 1500 | Support levels: 1250, 1125, 1000

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USDCHF - Quotes are holding in a downtrend


The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) is to release its traditional economic forecasts today. Still, investors expect them to be neutral, with third-quarter data showing a rise of 0.2% after rising by 0.1% earlier, indicating restrained dynamics, unable to influence the national currency. First, the gross domestic product (GDP) increase is curtailed by a record drop in consumer sentiment below –47.0 points for the first time since 1972. According to the latest poll, citizens do not expect improvements anytime soon and are reluctant to make large purchases amid unprecedented inflation and an uncertain outlook.





On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument continues its global decline, completing the formation of the local Triangle pattern. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal.


Resistance levels: 0.9410, 0.9550 | Support levels: 0.9310, 0.9150

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Crude oil price begins bullish correction


Crude oil price keeps rising to breach the bearish channel’s resistance by today’s open and settles above it, to start bullish correction for the entire decline that started from 92.9 areas, on its way to test 75.63 as a first positive station.





Therefore, we expect to witness more rise in the upcoming sessions, and breaching the mentioned level will extend the bullish wave to reach 78.93 areas, while breaking 73.65 represents negative factor that will stop the correctional bullish trend and press on the price to decline again.


The expected trading range for today is between 72.50 support and 76 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.

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Gold price tests the moving average


Gold price provided negative trades yesterday to start testing the EMA50 that forms minor support now at 1780, and the price needs to break this level to rally towards our waited negative target at 1764.4, noting that there are potential chances to provide additional negative trades, as we witness signs of double top pattern that might push the price to surpass the targeted level and head towards 1736.15 as a next negative target.





Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period unless breaching 1795 and holding above it. The expected trading range for today is between 1760 support and 1795 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.

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EURUSD Technical Analysis

The EURUSD pair returns to test the bullish channel’s support line, and we need to get positive motive that assists to push the price to resume the main bullish trend within the mentioned channel, which targets 1.0600 followed by 1.0745 levels as next main stations. Until now, we continue to suggest the bullish trend that gets continuous support by the EMA50 conditioned by the price stability above 1.0515, noting that breaking this level will stop the positive scenario and cause key turn to the trend to the downside.



The expected trading range for today is between 1.0460 support and 1.0630 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.

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USDCAD tests the resistance

The USDCAD pair traded positively on last Friday to test the key resistance 1.3680, keeping its stability below it until now, to keep the bearish trend scenario valid for the upcoming period, supported by stochastic loss to the positive momentum, waiting to head towards 1.3500 mainly. On the other hand, we should note that breaching 1.3680 will push the price to turn to rise and achieve gains that start at 1.38.



The expected trading range for today is between 1.3580 support and 1.3720 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.

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USDJPY attempts to recover


The USDJPY pair shows positive trades by today’s open to attempt to breach 136.50 level, to hint the attempt to recover in the upcoming sessions, but we notice that the technical indicators provide negative signals that hinder the positive attempts, to face contradiction between the technical factors that makes us prefer to stay aside until the price confirms its situation according to the mentioned level.





Note that holding above 136.50 will lead the price to achieve intraday gains that target testing 138.25 areas mainly, while trading below it again will reactivate the negative scenario that its targets begin at 135.25 and extend to 134.25.

The expected trading range for today is between 136.00 support and 137.80 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Neutral.

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NZDUSD leans on the channel’s support


The NZDUSD pair faced temporary negative pressure to test the bullish channel’s support line, starting to rise now, to keep the main bullish trend valid, waiting to test 0.6467 as a first station, noting that breaching this level will extend the bullish wave to reach 0.6530. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend for the upcoming period conditioned by the price stability above 0.6375 and 0.6345 levels.





The expected trading range for today is between 0.6345 support and 0.6480 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.

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BTCUSD - the decision of the US Federal Reserve will determine the dynamics of "digital gold"


Last week, the BTCUSD pair fell to the 16700 area but then won back the losses and rose to 17200, where it has been trading over the past few sessions.


The cryptocurrency market remains uncertain: the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange is putting pressure on it, but monetary factors prevent a significant decrease in quotes. The liquidation of several large digital projects at once in six months caused serious damage to the sector, expressed in the loss of confidence in it and a decrease in investment. Thus, according to a survey of American citizens conducted by the CNBC channel, by the end of the year, the number of respondents who had a positive attitude towards digital assets adjusted to 8.0% from 19.0%, and after the Terraform and FTX bankruptcies, the number of respondents who were strongly negative about cryptocurrencies, rose from 25.0% to 43.0%. The situation with FTX did not go unnoticed by the authorities, which creates the possibility of tightening control over the activities of such sites, restraining the activity of its participants. State regulators are already checking messages for unfair advertising, and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has required national businesses to publicly disclose the ownership of digital assets and report transactions with cryptocurrency market participants.


However, the negative fundamentals did not contribute to a sharp downward correction, as investors hope that the "hawkish" rhetoric of the US Fed will soften in the face of an emerging slowdown in price growth, which may cause the dollar to weaken against its main competitors. This week, analysts expect two major events – the publication of November inflation data and a meeting of the US regulator: if the consumer price index declines again, a decrease in interest rate growth to 50 basis points will become inevitable, and in the future, a short-term break in tightening of the monetary policy will become possible.





The trading instrument is near the resistance zone 17500 – 17830 (Murrey [6/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%), the breakout of which will give the prospect of further growth to 19100 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%), 20000 (Murrey [8/8], Fibonacci retracement 50.0%). After the breakdown of the middle line of Bollinger bands around 16800, the decline may resume to 15700 (the area of November lows), 15000 (Murrey [4/8]), and 13750 (Murrey [3/8]).


Technical indicators signal a high probability of correction: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are reversing upwards, and MACD is decreasing in the negative zone.


Resistance levels: 17830, 19100, 20000 | Support levels: 16800, 15700, 15000, 13750

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GBPUSD - Growth is possible.


On the daily chart, the downward fifth wave of the higher level 5 of (V) ended, within which the wave (5) of 5 formed, and the development of the upward first wave (1) started. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (1) is forming, within which the wave iii of 3 has ended, and a local correction is forming as the wave iv of 3.


If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will grow to the area of 1.2590 – 1.2900. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1899.