Market Update by Solidecn.com

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Pound Strengthens Amid Positive PMI Data and BOE Rate Speculations


Soldi ECN – The UK pound surged to $1.28 versus the US dollar and hit a near five-month peak against the euro, bolstered by unexpectedly robust PMI figures. These statistics could influence the Bank of England to adopt a gradual approach to reducing borrowing rates. Recent PMI surveys indicated a significant expansion in Britain's private sector, the most notable in seven months. This expansion was driven mainly by the service sector, which experienced its fastest growth since May.

In addition, recent economic reports showed a smaller-than-anticipated budget shortfall for Britain in December, potentially allowing for tax reductions in the upcoming March budget. However, other data pointed to the steepest drop in UK retail sales since January 2021 and a surprise uptick in inflation. With the Bank of England meeting on February 1st, interest rates are expected to maintain a 15-year peak of 5.25%. Compared to its European and American counterparts, the Bank is projected to delay rate cuts throughout the year.

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EUR/USD Dips to 1.0816, Historic Highs and Euro Inception Insights



Solid ECN – On Friday, January 26, the Euro to US Dollar (EURUSD) trading pair declined, falling by 0.0030 or 0.28%, closing at 1.0816 compared to 1.0846 at the end of the previous session. Looking back, the EUR/USD exchange rate recorded its highest value at 1.87 in July 1973. It's important to note that the euro was officially introduced as a form of currency on January 1, 1999. Despite this, it is possible to generate synthetic historical data that extends further back by calculating a weighted average of the currencies that preceded the euro.

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China Cuts Reserve Ratio, Stabilizes Yuan at 7.17



The value of the offshore yuan has stabilized at approximately 7.17 against the dollar. This follows investor evaluations of the repercussions of China's unexpected decision to reduce the reserve requirement ratio.

The People's Bank of China declared this change on Wednesday, planning to lower the ratio by 50 basis points next month. This strategy aims to revitalize China's faltering economy and is anticipated to inject around 1 trillion yuan of long-term capital. Recent gains in the yuan and predictions of interest rate reductions by other leading central banks this year allowed the PBOC to modify its monetary policy. Additionally, Premier Li Qiang led a cabinet meeting earlier this week, where authorities discussed adopting more vigorous and efficient strategies to bolster market assurance.

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Yen Strengthens Beyond 148 Against Dollar as BOJ's Ueda Hints at Policy Shift




Solid ECN – The value of the Japanese yen surged past 148 against the US dollar, rebounding from its near two-month low. This change follows recent comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, which ignited discussions about a potential alJapan'sn in Japan's financial strategy. Ueda noted an increasing possibility of consistently meeting the 2% inflation goal alongside wage increases. He mentioned that the central bank might reassess its extensive stimulus measures if this trend persists.

However, in its first session of the year, the Bank of Japan decided to continue its highly accommodative monetary stance, as was anticipated. The BOJ left its primary short-term interest rate unchanged at -0.1% and maintained the 10-year Japanese government bond yield cap at 1%. In other economic news, Japan witnessed a surge in private sector activities, reaching a four-month peak in January, primarily driven by a strong service sector performance. Additionally, the nation recorded a higher-than-expected increase in exports during December.

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NZ Dollar Stabilizes at $0.61 as Q4 Inflation Aligns with Forecasts.



Solid ECN – The value of the New Zealand dollar remained stable at approximately $0.61, reflecting a tepid market response to the latest inflation data for the country. The inflation figures for the fourth quarter showed a 0.5% increase every quarter, a deceleration from the 1.8% rise witnessed in the previous quarter, aligning with market expectations. The year-over-year inflation rate dipped to 4.7% in the fourth quarter, down from 5.6% in the third quarter, marking the lowest rate since mid-2021.

Market participants are now turning their attention to an upcoming speech by Paul Conway, the Chief Economist at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, who is anticipated to challenge the current dovish market sentiment. Additionally, the New Zealand currency continues to face challenges due to the robust performance of the US dollar as market speculation around early interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve this year recedes.

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Australian Dollar Weakens Amid US Economic Strength



Solid ECN – The Australian dollar has declined to approximately $0.657, approaching its lowest value in two months. This weakening trend is primarily influenced by the strengthening of the US dollar, fueled by robust American business activity data. Such data has led to increased speculation that the US Federal Reserve might not lower interest rates in the early part of this year. Despite China's commitment to bolster its capital markets and the People's Bank of China's unexpected decision to lower the reserve ratio for banks, aimed at stimulating the world's second-largest economy, the Aussie dollar has not seen significant support.

In Australia, recent data reveals a mixed economic picture. The private sector activity in the country witnessed a rise to its highest in four months during January, with manufacturing showing growth. However, the services sector experienced contraction for the fourth consecutive month. Additionally, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has indicated plans to engage in discussions with legislators regarding potential modifications to the proposed tax reductions for individuals with higher incomes.

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EURJPY Analysis


The EURJPY pair declined to 23.6% Fibonacci support in today’s trading session. The price is currently at 160.3, while the RSI and awesome oscillator indicators are pointing toward the continuation of the consolidation phase. However, for the decline to continue, the bears must prevail over the 23.6% Fibonacci support level, which the Ichimoku cloud has empowered.

The overall trend of EURJPY is bullish unless the price falls and stabilizes below the 160.2 support. In this case, the consolidation phase that began in the middle of January would extend deep into the Ichimoku cloud in conjunction with the 38.2% Fibonacci support.