Market Update by Solidecn.com

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EURUSD

Stable Interest Rates and Outlook: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates and its outlook stable in its upcoming meeting. The current interest rate level is seen as contributing substantially to achieving the inflation target.

Impact of Higher Oil Prices: Questions may arise about the impact of higher oil prices due to a potential crisis in the Middle East. The effects could vary, with possible inflation increase on one hand, and loss of purchasing power for households and businesses on the other.

Decline in Inflation Rate: A long-term decline in the inflation rate is expected, with uncertainty about the speed. Factors such as a weak economy could accelerate the decline, while stronger wage increases could slow it down.

Eurozone PMI Data: A flash estimate of Eurozone PMI data will be published next week, with no immediate improvement in sentiment expected for October. However, an increase in growth momentum in the Eurozone is anticipated from the first half of 2024.


Technical

The currency pair is currently trending downwards within a bearish channel, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is on the verge of dipping below the midpoint of 50. If the bears manage to close below the bullish channel (indicated in blue), we can expect the downward trend to persist, with targets set at Support 1 (S1) and subsequently Support 2 (S2).



On the other hand, Resistance 1 (R1) is set at 1.06. If the currency pair closes above this resistance level on the 4-hour chart, it would indicate a continuation of the bullish trend that began earlier this month.

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XRPUSD Technical Analysis: Ripple’s Breakout and Market Volatility

Ripple (XRP) recently experienced a significant breakout, surpassing the 0.53064 mark. This event led to a surge in momentum indicators, with both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator entering the overbought area. This is a clear indication of strong buying pressure and heightened investor interest.

The recent news surrounding Ripple has added an extra layer of volatility to the market. It’s important to note that market volatility can present both opportunities and risks for traders. High volatility often leads to larger price swings, which can result in higher profits or losses.




Bearish traders have exerted pressure on the XRPUSD pair, resulting in the formation of a long-wick candlestick pattern. This pattern is often seen as a sign of a potential price reversal. The 0.5306 level is playing a crucial role as the main support for the recent gains. As long as the XRP price remains above this level, there’s a valid outlook for bullish traders to push the price towards 0.5488.

However, if bearish traders manage to close the XRP price below 0.5063, it could trigger a price drop targeting 0.477. This scenario underlines the importance of key support and resistance levels in determining potential market movements.

In conclusion, while Ripple’s recent breakout and the subsequent market volatility present potential opportunities for traders, it’s crucial to closely monitor key technical indicators and market news to make informed trading decisions.

Source

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EURSGD Forecast

In a significant development, the EURSGD pair has successfully broken out of the bearish channel, closing above the crucial 1.45 pivot point on the daily chart. This shift is further confirmed by the RSI indicator, which has flipped above the 50 line, indicating a bullish bias. Given these factors, it’s anticipated that the EURSGD pair will continue its upward trajectory, potentially gaining value and reaching the R1 support level around the 1.461 area.



The pivot point serves as a strong support for the bullish scenario in the EURSGD market. However, if the bears manage to push the EURSGD pair to close below this level, it could signal a continuation of the decline. The next target for the pair would be the S1 support level, situated around the 1.434 area. Keep an eye on these key levels in the EURSGD market for potential trading opportunities.

Source

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Gold Forecast October with Swing Trading

The XAUUSD pair has been on an upward trajectory since October 25. This bullish trend was marked by a significant breakout from the bearish channel, which was subsequently tested on October 17. Currently, the yellow metal is not just surpassing its September high of $1,949 resistance, but also trading above the Ichimoku cloud. The position above the Ichimoku cloud is a strong indicator of a bullish bias in the market. This suggests that investors are optimistic about gold’s future performance and are willing to buy at current prices in anticipation of further increases.



In terms of technical indicators, the Stochastic oscillator is currently in the overbought zone. This typically suggests that the asset has been bought excessively and could be due for a price correction. However, it’s worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI), another momentum indicator, still has some room before reaching the overbought area. This divergence between the two indicators suggests that while gold may be overbought according to the Stochastic oscillator, there may still be some upward momentum left according to the RSI.

Given these conditions, there is potential for gold’s price to rise higher and target the $1,989 resistance level. However, it’s also possible that we might see a retest of the $1,920 level before any further gains are made. This could provide an opportunity for investors who missed out on the initial breakout to enter at a more favorable price point.

Final Word
In conclusion to our gold forecast October, while gold’s current bullish trend and its position above the Ichimoku cloud suggest potential for further gains, investors should also be mindful of technical indicators such as the Stochastic oscillator and RSI which suggest that a price correction could be on the horizon. (source)

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EURMXN

Source

The EURMXN currency pair recently broke out of the bearish channel on the weekly chart. Just last week, the pair retested the broken channel, causing the price to surge to an October high.



Upon closer inspection of the 4-hour chart, we observe that the EURMXN bulls encountered a formidable barrier around the 19.4 resistance level. This has temporarily halted the rising momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator are both in the overbought area, mirroring the signals from the Bollinger Bands.



Given these technical indicators pointing to an overbought market, it is plausible that the EURMXN will experience sideways movement in the upcoming session before making another attempt to break through the 19.4 resistance. A close above this level would pave the way for the bulls to reach the 19.6 resistance level.

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EURHUF

The EURHUF pair exited the bearish channel, but bulls couldn't surpass the 391.6 resistance, indicated by a long wick pattern on the weekly chart. With RSI and Stochastic oscillator dipping below signal lines, the pair's outlook stays bearish.



On the daily chart, EURHUF broke the bearish trendline on October 23 and is now stabilizing below this level. The RSI is under 50, signaling bearishness, but the Stochastic oscillator is in oversold territory, suggesting a possible correction to 386 before further decline.



If EURHUF remains under the 388 pivot, bears aim for 379. However, if it closes above the pivot, the bearish scenario becomes invalid, and the market could rise to test and potentially breach the 394 resistance.

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EURCHF

Our EURCHF analysis shows a bearish trend with the pair trading below the 0.9524 resistance.



The 4-hour chart reveals a double bottom pattern, suggesting a potential rise. Despite this, our overall outlook remains bearish. Swing traders might see a bullish opportunity, but if the pair closes below 0.946, we expect a decline to 0.942.



Source

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EURUSD

Last week, the EUR/USD tried to rise above a downward trend channel but didn’t succeed, so the channel is still active. The highest point reached was 1.0640, but it ended the day below the downward trend line, which might mean the trend line is still valid.

If it rises above the trend line, it could face resistance at 1.0620, 1.0640 and 1.0675, which are previous high points. Further up, there could be resistance at an earlier peak of 1.0737, which is currently where the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) is. Beyond that, another earlier high point near 1.0770 could also offer resistance.




A bearish triple moving average (TMA) pattern happens when the price is below the short-term SMA, which is below the medium-term SMA, which is in turn below the long-term SMA. All SMAs also need to be decreasing.

When looking at any combination of the 21-, 34-, 55- and 100-day SMAs, if they meet these conditions, it might suggest that a bearish momentum is developing.

On the downside, support might be found near the low points of early 2023 that were tested at the start of this month, with 1.0480 and 1.0440 as potential important levels.

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EURNZD

The EURNZD pair is currently trading within a bullish channel on the weekly chart, and it is presently above the 1.774 level, which is acting as a support for the price. The RSI indicator has flipped above the 50 line, indicating a bullish outlook for the EURNZD pair.




For a more detailed forecast of EURNZD, we zoom into the daily chart. The pair closed above the 1.783 level after breaking out of the daily bearish channel. While the RSI indicator is above the mid-line, suggesting bullishness, the stochastic oscillator indicates that the pair is overbought. Given this bullish outlook for EURNZD, we could expect a correction to recent gains with a retest of the pivot point.



With the price currently above the pivot point, the forecast for EURNZD suggests that the pair is targeting the 1.812 resistance level, followed by an August high around 1.816.

However, if the pair falls below 1.78, this would put a pause on the bullish scenario and could lead to a retest of the previous supply area around 1.75.

Key levels to watch:

Pivot: 1.78
Resistance: 1.81
Support: 1.75

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