Market Update by Solidecn.com

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NZ Dollar Stabilizes at $0.61 as Q4 Inflation Aligns with Forecasts.



Solid ECN – The value of the New Zealand dollar remained stable at approximately $0.61, reflecting a tepid market response to the latest inflation data for the country. The inflation figures for the fourth quarter showed a 0.5% increase every quarter, a deceleration from the 1.8% rise witnessed in the previous quarter, aligning with market expectations. The year-over-year inflation rate dipped to 4.7% in the fourth quarter, down from 5.6% in the third quarter, marking the lowest rate since mid-2021.

Market participants are now turning their attention to an upcoming speech by Paul Conway, the Chief Economist at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, who is anticipated to challenge the current dovish market sentiment. Additionally, the New Zealand currency continues to face challenges due to the robust performance of the US dollar as market speculation around early interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve this year recedes.

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Australian Dollar Weakens Amid US Economic Strength



Solid ECN – The Australian dollar has declined to approximately $0.657, approaching its lowest value in two months. This weakening trend is primarily influenced by the strengthening of the US dollar, fueled by robust American business activity data. Such data has led to increased speculation that the US Federal Reserve might not lower interest rates in the early part of this year. Despite China's commitment to bolster its capital markets and the People's Bank of China's unexpected decision to lower the reserve ratio for banks, aimed at stimulating the world's second-largest economy, the Aussie dollar has not seen significant support.

In Australia, recent data reveals a mixed economic picture. The private sector activity in the country witnessed a rise to its highest in four months during January, with manufacturing showing growth. However, the services sector experienced contraction for the fourth consecutive month. Additionally, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has indicated plans to engage in discussions with legislators regarding potential modifications to the proposed tax reductions for individuals with higher incomes.

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EURJPY Analysis


The EURJPY pair declined to 23.6% Fibonacci support in today’s trading session. The price is currently at 160.3, while the RSI and awesome oscillator indicators are pointing toward the continuation of the consolidation phase. However, for the decline to continue, the bears must prevail over the 23.6% Fibonacci support level, which the Ichimoku cloud has empowered.

The overall trend of EURJPY is bullish unless the price falls and stabilizes below the 160.2 support. In this case, the consolidation phase that began in the middle of January would extend deep into the Ichimoku cloud in conjunction with the 38.2% Fibonacci support.

[Solid ECN]

Silver Prices React to Market Sentiments




Solid ECN – Silver prices have recently experienced fluctuations in response to various market factors. After hitting a low point of slightly above $22 per ounce on January 22nd, the precious metal has shown signs of resilience. A significant contributing factor to this trend has been the behavior of the US dollar, which has remained relatively subdued. Investors have adopted a cautious "wait-and-see" approach in anticipation of the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming meeting and the release of crucial US economic data later in the week.


Evaluating Key Economic Indicators

To gain a deeper understanding of the silver market's dynamics, it is essential to examine the upcoming economic data releases that investors are closely monitoring. One of the pivotal reports on the horizon is the advance GDP estimate, which provides insights into the overall health and growth prospects of the US economy. Additionally, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report will be scrutinized for indications of economic activity and sentiment in the manufacturing sector. Another crucial data point is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which can offer valuable clues regarding consumer spending trends. Investors are particularly interested in these indicators as they seek to gauge the potential timing of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy decisions.


Fed Rate Expectations and Their Impact

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions have a substantial influence on silver prices. Lowering interest rates is a strategy that the Fed may employ to stimulate economic growth, and this action tends to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like silver. However, it is worth noting that market sentiment regarding the likelihood of a Fed rate reduction has shifted recently. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, there has been a significant decrease in the perceived probability of a rate cut in March, falling from 81% a week ago to less than 50%. This shift in expectations is an important factor that investors are considering when evaluating the future prospects of silver prices. Additionally, on the global front, the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its ultra-easy monetary settings and revise down its inflation forecast for 2024 due to declining oil prices adds another layer of complexity to the overall market sentiment and its impact on silver prices.

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USDJPY Maintains Bullish Trend Amid Market Fluctuations


Solid ECN – The USDJPY pair is hovering around 148.16 in today's trading session. The market fluctuates between a resistance level of 148.82 and a support level of 146.97. Notably, the bears could not break through the bullish flag, suggesting that the uptrend will continue. However, the first challenge for the bulls is the resistance at 148.8. The road to further gains will be paved if this level is broken.

The bullish outlook for the USDJPY remains intact as long as the pair stays above the 50% Fibonacci support level.

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GBPUSD Trend Analysis and Predictions for January 23, 2024



Solid ECN – The GBPUSD has bounced back from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and is currently trading around 1.272. The pair continues to trend within the bullish channel, but the stochastic oscillator indicates a potential correction phase may be on the horizon. The 61.8% Fibonacci level is providing support for the current bullish trend. As long as this level holds, the bulls are aiming for a high of 1.278. If the ADX line rises above 40, this could signal a continuation of the uptrend.

However, if the price drops below the 61.8% Fibonacci support level, we could see a consolidation extending to the 38.2% support level.

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Geopolitics and Economics: Unraveling Oil Price Trends




Solid ECN – West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were trading under $75 per barrel this Tuesday. This rate is close to the peak levels observed in the past four weeks, influenced significantly by recent military actions. The joint strikes by United States and United Kingdom forces on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen have heightened concerns about potential escalations in the region, which may interrupt oil supplies. Additionally, oil prices saw a 2% surge on Monday, propelled by news of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting energy infrastructures along Russia's Baltic coastline.

However, there are counterbalancing factors in the oil market. The resumption of oil production at Libya's largest oilfield and indications of increased output, particularly from countries outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), have exerted downward pressure on oil prices.

On the demand front, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has updated its forecast for oil demand growth in 2024. The new estimate shows an increase of 1.24 million barrels per day, an upward revision of 180,000 barrels per day. This adjustment is attributed to expectations of enhanced economic growth and the reduced prices of crude oil in the last quarter. Concurrently, OPEC has held steady in its prediction, anticipating a demand growth of 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024, with a robust projection of 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025.

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