Market Update by Solidecn.com

[Solid ECN]

Apple Sanctions Shake Wall Street

Wall Street is down today. This is due to a strong reading of US claims, a sell-off in China, and sanctions against Apple. The strong claims reading shows that the labor market is doing well. This fits with the higher-than-expected ISM services report from yesterday.

The dollar is up because people are avoiding risk. Yields are also up, and the chances of the Fed raising interest rates have increased. In China, both imports and exports fell in August compared to last year. This shows that the economy is still weak. The rising dollar is also adding to people’s worries. It is being supported by strong labor market data, which is causing people to sell stocks. Unemployment claims fell again, and productivity and labor costs were revised up more than expected. Markets think there is a 7% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in September.

Investors are worried about China’s decision to ban state employees from using iPhones. They say this is because of spying concerns. Apple is losing the most out of all the big tech companies today. Its stock is down 3.2% as people wait for the release of the iPhone 15. Investors are worried that China’s decision about iPhones could be part of a bigger plan. They think it could lead to more tension between China and the US, which are still very dependent on each other economically.

The background to today’s decline in the US stock market is the loss of momentum in China. This has happened many times this year, despite efforts to stimulate the economy and help the banking and real estate sectors. Chinese index futures are down nearly 3%. Imports fell 7.2% compared to last year, and exports fell more than 9%.



The US100 index is trying to recover from earlier losses, but sentiment is still down in the short term. The key resistance level on the M15 chart is 15317 points.

[Solid ECN]

Japanese Government Considers Intervention as Yen Volatility Continues


The yen in Japan has been quite unpredictable lately, which is causing worry for the country’s leaders. Masato Kanda, the Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, and other officials have hinted that they might step in to keep the yen stable and control speculative trading. They believe that activities not aligned with basic economic indicators are causing this unpredictability.





Last year in October, the government took similar steps, showing that they are serious and ready to act firmly. However, when the USDJPY fell below 145 in August, the government softened its warnings. This left traders unsure about what the government might do next. Recently, the yen fell to its lowest point in ten months, getting close to levels that have led to government intervention in the past. Market experts have noted that if USDJPY falls to 150, the government might be forced to intervene in the market again.

[Solid ECN]

Solid ECN Securities: A Safe and Reliable Forex Broker with Comoros Union Regulation

Solid ECN Securities is a forex broker that is authorized and regulated by the Comoros Union with reference number HY00623411. It offers trading on Foreign Exchange (Forex or FX) and Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which are complex financial products that are traded on margin. Solid ECN Securities is a safe and reliable broker with an experienced and professional team.

At Solid ECN Securities, you can access over 200 products with the next-generation trading platform MetaTrader 5. The company offers unique trading conditions for ECN accounts, including no minimum deposit, spread from 0 pips, leverage up to 1:1000, and 7 days Zero Swap on Major FX Pairs.

In addition to its competitive trading conditions, Solid ECN Securities is committed to upholding the highest standards of compliance and transparency. Its Anti-Money Laundering (AML) policy outlines the measures it has put in place to prevent money laundering and the financing of terrorism, in line with the latest international standards and regulations.

[Solid ECN]

Bank of Canada Expected to Keep rates unchanged tomorrow.

USDCAD enjoyed strong gains between June 2021 and October 2022, gaining over 15% over the period. However, the advance was halted in the final quarter of 2022 and the pair has traded largely sideways since. Recent USD strengthening allowed the pair to bounce off 10-month lows in the 1.3100 area and climb towards the upper limit of the trading range at 1.3650. An attempt to break above this zone was made today but so far, bulls failed to deliver a breakout. Decision from Bank of Canada tomorrow could be crucial for whether the pair breaks above this zone or pulls back from it. Should we see a strong hint that incoming data doesn't support rate hikes at future meetings, CAD may find itself under pressure with USDCAD potentially breaking above 1.3650 area.

[Solid ECN]

EURUSD

Christopher J. Waller, a voting member of the Fed's Governing Council, delivered some comments on monetary policy and economy this afternoon. Comments can be seen as dovish with Waller hinting that the September meeting may see rates being kept unchanged.

Key takeaways from Waller today

• Data released last week allows Fed to proceed carefully
• Data doesn't say we need to do anything imminent
• Data is looking 'pretty good' for no recession
• Whether more rate hikes are needed depends on data
• Want to be careful on saying inflation job done
• Don't think one more hike would trigger recession
• Not obvious one more rate hike would damage job market
• Need to keep rates up until inflation eases
• Treasury yields are about where they should be
• Fed takes fiscal policy as a given
• Trillion dollar deficits sustained don't look good for the US fiscal position
• We are keeping a close eye on the commercial real estate sector
• I'm not seeing anything in commercial estate that will threaten the economy

Markets saw dovish reactions to Waller's comments, especially to bolded lines. EURUSD bounced off the daily lows and attempted to climb back above 1.0750 mark while European and US index futures revisited daily highs.


EURUSD bounced off the daily lows following dovish comments from Fed Waller.

[Solid ECN]

EURUSD

PMI indexes in Europe mostly performed weaker than preliminary readings. In countries that reported data for the first time today, the readings were also worse than expected. Those are services PMI readings from European countries:

• Spain: 49.3 (expected 51.5; previous: 52.8)
• Italy: 49.8 (expected: 50.3; previous: 51.5)
• France (fin.): 46 (expected: 46.7; previous: 47.1)
• Germany (fin.): 47.3 (expected: 47.3; previous: 52.3)
• EMU (fin): 47.9 (expected: 48.3; previous: 50.9)
• Eurozone composite drops to 46.7 with 47 points expected.

We have the lowest reading since 2020. HCOB writes in a commentary that the eurozone did not fall into recession in the first half of the year, but the second half of the year comes into big question. The services sector, which had been a stabilizing force for the economy for many months, now appears to be a strong drag, and the industrial sector is likely to decline further. HCOB forecasts -0.1% change in GDP for Q3 in EMU.



EURUSD continues its declines and is currently testing the 1.0750 levels.

[Solid ECN]

Bitcoin: Will the Price Drop Below $25,000

Bitcoin’s price is falling and is currently around $25,400. A few days ago, the price went up after Grayscale won a court case against the SEC. However, the excitement didn’t last long. Major cryptocurrencies are having trouble keeping their value because there aren’t enough new investors. The SEC didn’t accept other applications for funds, including one from BlackRock. The next deadline for reviewing applications is in mid-October.





Technically looking at the D1 interval, Bitcoin prices recently reacted at the support level of $26,000 (slightly breaching it earlier). This level stemmed from the lower limit of a broad 1:1 pattern. According to the Overbalance methodology, defending this level could result in a move to new highs. However, the upward movement was halted at the level of the 100-day EMA, after which the price dynamically moved downward. We are currently observing another attempt to negate the 1:1 geometry. Attention should be paid to the horizontal support zone at the level of $25,300, which is currently being tested. If this level is breached, the price drop may intensify. The next noteworthy support level is only at $23,600, which results from a 50% measurement of the last upward wave.

[Solid ECN]

Chart of the Day - USDCAD

The value of the US dollar compared to the Canadian dollar (USDCAD) might change a lot today in the early afternoon. This is because two important reports will be released at 1:30 pm BST. One report is about jobs in the US for August and the other is about Canada's economy for April-June 2023. People will pay more attention to the US jobs report.

The US jobs report for August is one of the last two important reports before a meeting on September 20, 2023. The other report is about US prices for August and will be released on September 13, 2023. The jobs report today is expected to show that 170,000 more people have jobs, and that the unemployment rate and how much people earn did not change (3.5% and 4.4% more than last year). If the report shows fewer new jobs, it would mean that the job market in the US is not doing well.

For Canada, people expect that the economy grew less from April-June 2023 (1.2%) than from January-March 2023 (3.1%).



If we look at a chart of USDCAD, we can see that it is close to an important value of 1.3500. If it goes below this value, it could mean that the value of the US dollar will keep going down compared to the Canadian dollar. We will know more around 1:30 pm BST when the reports are released.

[Solid ECN]

WTI is testing $83 per barrel area amid expectations of further supply cuts

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is a type of crude oil that is used as a benchmark for oil prices. It is currently trading at around $83 per barrel, which is higher than usual. This is happening even though the US dollar has become stronger, which usually causes oil prices to go down.

The main reason for the increase in WTI price is that people are worried that OPEC+ countries will reduce the amount of oil they produce. Saudi Arabia has already said that it might continue to produce 1 million fewer barrels of oil per day until October. Russia might also continue to produce 0.5 million fewer barrels of oil per day until October.

Another thing that could affect oil production is the hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico. This area produces around 2 million barrels of oil per day, but if there are hurricanes, production could be reduced. The Gulf of Mexico also has many natural gas drilling rigs, so the price of natural gas (NATGAS) could also be affected.



Barclays thinks that the reduction in oil production by OPEC+ countries is more important than any changes in demand for oil in China. They expect the price of Brent (another type of crude oil) to go up to $97 per barrel next year.

Finally, it’s worth noting that a recent report from the US showed that there are 10.5 million fewer barrels of crude oil in storage than there were before. This means that there is less oil available, which could also cause prices to go up.

[Solid ECN]

Chart of the Day - USDCAD

This week, there have been several important reports about the economy of the United States, and more are expected. One report showed that the number of new job openings is decreasing, which means the job market is not as strong as it was. Another report showed that the growth of the US economy was lower than expected. If future reports show that the job market and economy are getting weaker, the value of the US dollar could decrease. This could also mean that the Federal Reserve will stop increasing interest rates. On the other hand, the Canadian dollar is doing well because of high oil prices and good economic data. The Canadian economy is strong, and inflation has decreased to 3.3%.



From a technical standpoint, USDCAD reacted to the key resistance zone around 1.365. This level has repeatedly thwarted growth in this currency pair in the past, and it was the same this time. If USDCAD returns to growth and breaks this level, we may see a sharp rise, at least in the short term—historically, USDCAD hasn't stayed above this level for long. Otherwise, if the current trend continues, the next support zones worth noting are 1.335 and 1.308, marked on the chart with a green line.