Market Update by Solidecn.com

[Solid ECN]

CHN.Cash - Chart of the Day

Today, Chinese stock markets are falling sharply, with CHN.cash down almost 1%. Economic data is weaker than expected. Excluding oil, exports from Singapore, the world's biggest port, dropped 3.8% month over month, which is worse than the 4.2% growth predicted and the previous 3.2% drop. This shows that some economic indicators are weakening for a longer period. China, which depends a lot on demand from Western countries, especially the US, could suffer greatly if demand from developed economies decreases, for instance, due to a recession. The fact that fewer goods are leaving China each month might indicate a wider problem. How a declining Chinese market affects global fund managers' portfolios is a big question because China's economic weakness is somewhat separate from other 'emerging markets'.

Another risk factor was the nearly 20% drop in Evergrande shares at the start of the Chinese session. Although they recovered their losses, it raised wider concerns about China's real estate sector. Country Garden, which is financially troubled, faced two major challenges: the initial deadline for interest payments on more than $50 million in dollar bonds and the end of a creditor vote on a proposal to extend repayment of debt in yuan. While property sales in China increased month over month in August, other key indicators like new housing starts, total construction area and real estate investment continued to fall. Data from the 70 biggest cities show that property prices fell in most cities.



Looking at the CHN.cash chart, we see that supply is maintaining the overall downward trend line and became active again last time at 7000 points. The rebound lost momentum at 6700 and now sellers are back in control again, who may want to test the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave from fall 2022 at 6000 points again. Alternatively, if this support breaks downwards it could lead to a test of 6750 points, which are near 5750 points - 61.6 Fibo retracement. To break the current trend, buyers would have to push the index above the SMA200, which is now at 6672 points.

[Solid ECN]

US30 - Chart of the Day

As we will learn a number of macro data from the US economy today and today, we have 'Freaky Friday' so elevated volatility among Wall Street indices may continue. Although the share of industrial companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) is quite limited these days, it is still substantial (including Boeing, Honewyell and General Electric) - it is today that we will learn data from US industry. The industrial production reading at 2:15 PM BST may show whether consumer and business demand is indeed strong enough to stimulate production, and data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations will complete the picture of overall prosperity in the U.S. economy.

In the results of the rollover in the options and derivatives market, today's volatility on US30 may accelerate - and if investors' new positioning will be in line with the current upward trendline there are chances for a strong session on Wall Street. A Bank of America survey indicated a record $26.4 billion in inflows into US equity market this week, the vast majority of which ($18.7 billion) flowed into large-cap companies. Analysts pointed out that the market consensus is reassuring of a successful scenario for the stock market - a soft landing of the economy in the United States.



Looking at the Dow Jones (US30) contracts, we see that they are quite close to historical highs, and it is possible that the bulls will eventually reach record levels above 36,000 points. The upward trend line is maintained, and the index has not approached the SMA 200 (red line) since September 2022, demand reacted quickly in the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement zone at 32,400 points. So far, the current week has been exceptionally successful for the Dow Jones, as illustrated by the green candle with a large body. Seasonally, September has often proved to be a suitable time for stock accumulation for the last, usually successful 'Christmas quarter.' Bulls are hoping that this will also be the case this time.

[HubuFX]

EURUSD Forecast

Upon examining the daily chart for the EURUSD currency pair, it is evident that the bears have exerted significant downward pressure on the price. This has resulted in a substantial decline, pushing the price all the way down to a crucial support zone. This zone, which extends from 1.0664 to 1.0636, is of paramount importance in the current market dynamics.

This particular level is noteworthy as it offers a substantial bid for buyers, making it an attractive point for potential market entry. However, it's important to bear in mind the inherent risk of being stopped out should the price fall below this support level. Therefore, careful consideration and risk management strategies are essential when trading at this juncture.



If this support level proves to be robust and withstands further bearish pressure, we could potentially see a reversal in the EURUSD price trend. This could usher in a period of correction, during which the price may retrace some of its recent losses. In such a scenario, it's plausible that the EURUSD price might aim to test the previously broken support level around 1.072 on the daily chart. This level could serve as a key target for this potential corrective phase.

In conclusion, monitoring these key levels on the EURUSD daily chart can provide valuable insights for traders and investors alike. It's also worth noting that these observations are based on current market conditions and are subject to change as new market data becomes available.

[HubuFX]

Stablecoin Studio Shines as Bitcoin Weathers the FTX Storm: A Crypto Market Analysis

A U.S. Bankruptcy Court judge in Delaware ruled that crypto exchange FTX can use its crypto assets to repay creditors. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rebounded from $25,000, targeting the $24,129 pivot. Bulls need a close above the pivot for $28,000 resistance.

[HubuFX]

EURUSD Bearish Outlook and the Impact of Euro Economy News

The EURUSD currency pair has recently tested the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 1.078 resistance zone, but is currently trading below this level. As long as this level remains steady, the outlook for the currency pair will be bearish, with a potential target of 1.065.



However, if the bulls manage to close above the 1.078 resistance, it could halt the current downtrend momentum. In this scenario, the upper band of the bearish channel would become the next resistance to watch.

It's worth noting that recent news about the Euro economy could impact this analysis. For instance, the European Central Bank is considering raising its key interest rate, and there are concerns about climate risks impacting Europe's economy. These factors could influence the EURUSD currency pair's movements in the near future. Stay updated with the latest news for more accurate forex predictions.

[Solid ECN]

EURUSD - Chart of the Day

The European Central Bank (ECB) will make a decision today at 1:15 PM BST, and this could cause some changes in the value of the Euro compared to the US Dollar. The markets are unsure about what ECB's head, Christine Lagarde, will decide. The ECB might keep the interest rates the same at 4.25%.

At the same time, the US will release some economic data at 1:30 PM BST. This includes information about retail sales, inflation, and changes in the number of people without jobs. This could give us more insight into the US job market.

If the ECB keeps the rates the same, it might cause the Euro to decrease in value compared to the Dollar. This could be because people are speculating that the ECB might stop increasing rates due to the weaker economy in the Eurozone. The Eurozone economy might have been affected by the previous nine rate increases. On the other hand, if the ECB increases the rates, the Euro might increase in value compared to the Dollar. This could mean that the ECB doesn't think the economy is weak enough to stop fighting inflation and start stimulating demand. However, the value of the Euro could also be affected by the US Federal Reserve's decision next week.

It's important to note that the economy in Europe is weaker than in the US, which is clear in the industrial sector. So, any increase in the value of the Euro might be due to speculation, and any worsening data could stop further increases. This is as long as the US data continues to be stronger than Europe's. Christine Lagarde will start a conference at 1:45 PM BST.



Looking at the Euro-Dollar chart, we can see that the value of the Euro is decreasing. This trend could only change if the value increases significantly to 1.08. Until then, there might be resistance at 1.078, which is where the value started decreasing in September. If the value decreases below the averages of 200, 100, and 50 days, which are all around 1.073, it might suggest that the Euro will continue to decrease to 1.06, which would be the lowest value this year.

[HubuFX]

USDJPY Analysis: Bulls Thrilling Climb to New Heights

The Japanese yen has slowed down a bit against the U.S. dollar after the head of the Bank of Japan made a statement that seemed to favor tighter monetary policy. But, there's some news coming up that could shake things up. People are guessing that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, might be higher than before. If that's true, the U.S. Federal Reserve might raise interest rates again next week. This idea is making the U.S. dollar stronger. Also, in Japan, the rate of inflation at the wholesale level went down in August, which is making the yen weaker.

The USDJPY currency pair is on an upward trend, trading within a rising channel. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has tipped over the signal line, indicating a potential increase in buying pressure. The lower line of this channel is acting as a support for bullish traders.

Interestingly, Japan's yearly inflation rate at the wholesale level has been on a downward trend for the past eight months, weakening the Japanese yen. This economic backdrop sets the stage for the USDJPY to potentially reach its recent high at 147.88. If this level is surpassed, the next target could be 148.42.



The outlook for the USDJPY pair remains bullish. The support level at 146.57 could provide a favorable entry point for traders considering the risk-reward ratio at the current price.

In forex trading, it's crucial to keep an eye on these economic indicators and market trends. They can provide valuable insights into potential trading opportunities and strategies. Always remember, successful trading involves careful analysis and risk management.

[Solid ECN]

Apple One Step Closer to iPhone 15 Debut

Apple's stock (AAPL.US) has gone up this year. However, the company hasn't shared its plans for artificial intelligence (AI) technology yet. Also, their second-quarter results showed that device sales are not growing, even though they're still making record profits and increasing their profit margins. Today, Apple is going to show off the new iPhone 15, which is always big news in the tech world. If they give any hints about future developments for their AI system, Siri, during this event, it could affect their stock price.



Looking at the chart of Apple (AAPL.US), we see that the price has settled below the SMA50 and SMA100, and the last time it traded below both of them was at the beginning of the year. The main resistance level is set by the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave from January. A potential lower oversold range is at $170, where we see the 38.2 Fibo, and just below at $165 runs the long-term trendsetting SMA200 (red line).

[Solid ECN]

Bitcoin Analysis

Cryptocurrencies extend losses amid fears of FTX asset liquidation!

Bitcoin is down 2.70% and is struggling to maintain the key support zone at the level of 25,200 dollars. The sentiment in the market is not improving, and the upcoming decision on September 13th regarding the liquidation of FTX assets with a total value of 3.4 billion dollars is causing another wave of panic. The next level of support is 24,800 dollars. This was the low on June 15, 2023, following the market panic due to the delisting of many altcoins and SEC lawsuits.



The liquidation of funds from FTX is to take place gradually, with between $100-200 million entering the market week by week. However, the details of the transaction are not yet known. It is possible that the assets will be sold on the OTC market - outside exchanges. In this case, all market concerns are panic, which only confirms the stage of the cycle we are currently in.

Another date to watch this week is the statement by the SEC chairman, Gary Gensler, before the Senate Banking Committee, which will take place on September 12th.

[Solid ECN]

China Inflation to Rebound on Economic Recovery

China’s consumer price inflation, which measures the average change in prices over time that consumers pay for a basket of goods, is expected to increase in the coming months. This is due to the economy’s moderate recovery, which is being driven by various policy measures.

In August, consumer prices rose by 0.1% compared to the previous year. This was a reversal from July, when prices fell by 0.3%. This was the first decrease since February 2021.

The Chinese government has set an inflation target of around 3% for this year. The rise in prices was mainly due to a 0.5% increase in non-food prices, while food prices fell by 1.7%.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, remained steady at 0.8% in August. This was the highest level since January.

Meanwhile, the annual decrease in producer prices (the prices that producers get for their products) slowed to 3.0% in August from 4.4% in July.

Economists Zichun Huang and Julian Evans-Pritchard predict that producer prices will stop falling by the end of the year and consumer prices will continue to rise over the coming months. They expect an average inflation rate of around 1.0% in 2024 and 2025.

They also believe that core inflation will increase in the coming months as excess stock from the pandemic export boom is sold off and policy support leads to a partial recovery in domestic demand.

Despite a slump in the property market, Beijing expects to achieve a growth target of around 5% this year. The Chinese government has introduced several measures to combat the economic downturn following the reopening related bounce back at the start of the year.

The People’s Bank of China has also relaxed its borrowing rules and reduced mortgage rates for first-time home buyers.

In August, bank lending increased sharply to CNY 1.36 trillion from CNY 345.9 billion in July, exceeding the expected level of CNY 1.2 trillion. Total social financing (a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy) increased to CNY 3.12 trillion in August from CNY 528.2 billion in July.