Market Update by Solidecn.com

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USDCAD Analysis

FxNews - The USDCAD pair is trading within a bullish channel. This week, the bulls in USDCAD closed above the pivot, and currently, the price is struggling to break out above the median line of the bullish channel.



The RSI indicator is hovering above the 50 level. The trend is bullish and is likely to aim for R1 (1.399 resistance). S1 and the lower line of the bearish channel support the bullish scenario. As long as the pair is trading within the channel, the overall outlook of the trend is bullish.

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Yen's Fall: Impact of Divergent Monetary Policies

The Japanese yen has once again fallen below 151 per dollar, potentially heading towards its lowest value since 1990. This is largely due to the contrasting stances of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on monetary policy. Earlier this week, Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Fed, suggested that additional interest rate increases might be necessary to control inflation.


Diverging Monetary Policies

On the other hand, Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the BOJ, has advised caution given the current uncertainties. He recognized that the divergence in policies has contributed to the yen's depreciation but did not explicitly express support for the currency. Earlier this month, the BOJ held its policy rate steady at -0.1% and kept the 10-year JGB yield target at approximately 0%. It also made minor modifications to its yield curve control policy, loosely defining 1% as an "upper bound" rather than a strict limit and removed a commitment to uphold this level by offering to purchase an unlimited quantity of bonds.

In terms of the economy, a weaker yen can be both beneficial and detrimental. On one hand, it can boost exports by making Japanese goods cheaper for foreign buyers, which can stimulate economic growth. On the other hand, it can increase the cost of imports and potentially lead to inflation. Therefore, whether it's good or bad for the economy depends on a variety of factors, including the balance of trade, the rate of inflation, and the overall health of the global economy.

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USDMXN


FxNews - The USDMXN downtrend eased at the 61.8% level of Fibonacci retracement. This level coincides with the Ichimoku cloud, which makes this resistance level powerful. Moreover, the RSI indicator shows divergence, which can be a signal for a range market or trend reversal.





To gain better insight and find triggers, we zoom into the USDMXN 4H chart. The pair is currently trading in a narrow range, shown with the blue box on the 4-hour chart. The pivot plays the role of resistance. If the price holds below this level, another fall is expected, targeting S1 (16.998).





On the other hand, if the USDMXN price can stabilize above the pivot, we can expect the pair to see some upward momentum toward R1 (17.8 resistance).

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GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair experienced a decline after reaching the significant 1.24 mark. Currently, the pair is delicately poised below the pivot point, testing the resilience of the bullish channel’s median line.




In the short-term, if the GBPUSD price manages to maintain above the crucial 1.225 support level, we could witness a bullish trend. This scenario presents an optimistic outlook for traders who are bullish on the GBPUSD.

However, a break below the 1.225 level could signal a potential downturn, extending the decline to the 1.21 mark, which represents the lower boundary of the bullish channel. This development would be significant for those keeping a close eye on this currency pair.

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USILS

FxNews — The decline of the USDIL currency pair continued to the 50% level of the Fibonacci retracement. The Israeli Shekel is currently testing the Ichimoku cloud while the RSI indicator is nearing the oversold area. Please note that the current military operation and the conflict situation in Gaza have made this currency very unstable and hard to predict. We would like to take the opportunity to express our condolences to the people of Israel who lost their loved ones, children, and soldiers during the fight against the Palestinian terrorists, Hamas.




To have a comprehensive outlook of the USDILS price action, we zoom into the 4H chart. The bears have aggressively bet on the Israeli Shekel currency, which has led the RSI indicator to hover in the oversold area for a week now. Since the pair is extremely oversold, we don’t suggest bidding on buying. Analysts at FxNews suggest waiting for the price to make a correction. If the price can break out of the bearish channel in the 4H chart, it would probably rise to test the pivot.



The pivot can provide a decent demand zone for the bears to add another pressure. Please watch these levels closely and look for candlestick patterns such as doji, bearish engulfing, or long wick candlestick patterns before initiating a trade.

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EURUSD Technical Analysis

The EURUSD has rebounded from the 1.06 pivot point, as anticipated. As long as the pair trades above this pivot, it's plausible for the EURUSD bulls to target the 1.081 resistance level.



However, if the pivot is broken and the bears close below it in the 4H chart, the bullish outlook will be invalidated, shifting the bearish target to S1.

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GBPSEK

The GBPSEK currency pair is trading below the bearish trendline on the daily chart. In terms of the technical indicator, the GBPSEK price is hovering below the 13.384 pivot, the Kernel channel, and the RSI indicator is below the level of 50. According to the data we received from the chart, the market is bearish on GBPSEK. The bears’ first target is the 13.3 support, and if this level breaks, the next target would be around the 13.0 area.

The bearish scenario will be invalidated if the GBPSEK price breaks and stabilizes above the bearish trendline. (Source)

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GBPNOK

The GBPNOK pair is currently exhibiting a bullish trend, trading within a bullish channel. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates an overbought market, and the pair is showing a downward trend. It’s probable that the pair will test the 13.62 pivot point or the lower boundary of the bullish channel before making further gains.




The 13.545 level lends support to this bullish scenario. If this level is breached, it would invalidate the bullish channel. Subsequently, the next target for the GBPNOK bears would be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. (Source)

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GBPNZD
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The bulls on GBPUSD are testing the upper line of the bearish channel. This level coincides with the Ichimoku cloud. Therefore, this is a strong barrier for the GBPNZD bulls to overcome. The trend is bearish as long as the price trades inside the bearish channel.



If the GBPNZD bulls can break out of the bearish channel, the next resistance is at 2.1. The overall trend is bearish. Let's zoom into the 4H chart to find triggers for the bearish trend.

The pair formed a long-wick candlestick pattern in today's trading session near R1 (2.08 resistance). If the pair falls below the Kernel line of the Lorentzian Classification indicator, the downtrend will continue with bears targeting the lower line of the bearish channel. (Source)