Market Update by Solidecn.com

[Solid ECN]

How Hong Kong’s Retail Sector Slowed Down in October

In October 2023, Hong Kong’s retail sector grew by only 2.7% compared to the same month last year. This was a big drop from the 10.0% growth rate in September 2023. It was also the lowest growth rate since December 2022.

One of the main reasons for this slowdown was the decline in sales of some essential items, such as food, drinks, tobacco, fuels, and consumer durable goods. These items are usually bought by local residents for their daily needs. However, due to the high inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic, many people reduced their spending on these items.

Another reason was the weak demand for luxury goods, such as jewellery, watches, clocks, and valuable gifts. These items are usually bought by tourists and wealthy customers. However, due to the travel restrictions and the political unrest, many tourists and investors stayed away from Hong Kong.

On the other hand, some categories of retail sales still performed well in October 2023. These included clothing, footwear, and other consumer goods. These items are usually bought by young and fashionable customers. They also benefited from the online shopping platforms and the festive promotions.

Compared to September 2023, retail sales increased by 6.1% in October 2023. This was mainly because of the seasonal factors and the low base of comparison. However, this increase was not enough to offset the year-on-year slowdown.

The Impact of Retail Sales on the Economy

Retail sales are an important indicator of the economic health of a country or a region. They reflect the level of consumer confidence, income, and spending. They also affect the employment, tax revenue, and business activity of the retail sector.

Therefore, the slowdown in retail sales in Hong Kong could have a negative impact on the economy. It could reduce the income and profits of the retailers and their suppliers. It could also lower the tax revenue and the public spending of the government. It could also discourage the investment and the innovation of the retail sector.

However, the slowdown in retail sales could also have some positive effects on the economy. It could encourage the consumers to save more and spend less. It could also motivate the retailers to improve their efficiency and quality. It could also stimulate the diversification and the transformation of the retail sector.

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[Solid ECN]

USDCAD Eases Selling Pressure, Eyes 1.35 Level

FxNews - Today, the USDCAD experienced a reduction in selling pressure, settling below the flag's median line. The pair is now finding its footing below the middle line, around the 64.8% Fibonacci level on the 4-hour chart. A bearish movement towards 1.35 is anticipated, matching the 78.6% Fibonacci level.




A closer look at the 4-hour USDCAD chart reveals a divergence in the Awesome Oscillator with its bars turning green, while the RSI indicator suggests the likelihood of a price correction. The pair is currently restrained by the 23.6% Fibonacci level, which is preventing it from recovering more of its recent losses.



As long as it stays below this level, the price is expected to fluctuate within the 1.35 to 1.36 range.

[Solid ECN]

EURUSD: Testing the Waters at 1.096

In the EURUSD market, the bears are currently putting pressure on the 1.096 support level. At the same time, the RSI indicator has exited the overbought zone, yet there's a noticeable divergence present. If the EURUSD manages to stay above 1.0963, the market sentiment is likely to remain bullish.



However, if the price of EURUSD dips below 1.0963, this bullish trend may pause. In this case, the focus will shift to how the market responds to the pivot point, which is also backed by the lower boundary of the bearish channel.​

[Solid ECN]

EURUSD Fundamentals

FxNews - On Wednesday, the Euro struggled to maintain its strength above the 1.1000 level against the US Dollar, ultimately retreating to around 1.0990 as trading began in Europe. Conversely, the US Dollar, referred to as the Greenback, is wavering around 102.70, despite recovering from earlier dips in the 102.50-102.45 range, as indicated by the USD Index (DXY).

The current monetary policy landscape remains stable for now. However, investors are speculating about potential interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) come spring 2024.

Attention in the Eurozone is now turning towards Germany’s forthcoming release of preliminary inflation data for November. Meanwhile, in the US, the spotlight is on several key economic indicators, including the advanced Q3 GDP Growth Rate, preliminary figures for Goods Trade Balance, and Mortgage Applications as monitored by the MBA. The day in North America will conclude with the publication of the Fed’s Beige Book.

Adding to this, Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester, a hawkish figure and 2024 voter, is scheduled to speak, potentially offering further insights into future economic policies.

[Solid ECN]

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[Solid ECN]

GBPUSD Sees Strong Uptrend, Caution Advised for Long Positions

News Solid ECN - The GBPUSD currency pair recently began a stronger upward movement, surpassing its previous bullish trend. As of now, it's trading near 1.2703, with the RSI indicator indicating an overbought condition for nearly a day. Our previous technical analysis of GBPUSD cautioned that the pair was overbought, advising against long positions for retail traders. This advice remains relevant and applicable.



For investors considering going long, the 1.260 level presents a good and fair entry point, should there be any price adjustments in the GBPUSD pair.

[Solid ECN]

Germany's Import Prices: A Continuing Decline

In October 2023, Germany saw a continued decrease in the cost of imported goods, marking the eighth month of this trend. The reduction in import prices was 13.0%, slightly less than the anticipated 13.4%. This ongoing drop stems largely from the high prices experienced in 2022 due to the conflict in Ukraine. The biggest decrease was in energy imports, which were 43.5% cheaper than the previous year. This includes significant reductions in the prices of natural gas, hard coal, electricity, mineral oil products, and crude oil. Intermediate goods and agricultural products also saw price drops, as well as both durable and non-durable consumer goods, albeit to a lesser extent. On the flip side, the cost of capital goods actually went up a bit.

For a catchy and visually appealing representation of this topic, I would suggest an image that creatively illustrates the decline in import prices in Germany. It could depict a downward graph or arrow, symbolizing the price reduction, set against a backdrop of key items such as energy sources and consumer goods. The overall tone should be informative yet engaging.

[Solid ECN]

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Dip Amid High Storage and Production

U.S. natural gas futures are hovering around $2.9/MMBtu, a level close to their lowest in twelve weeks. This pricing trend is primarily due to high storage levels, unprecedented production rates, and a dip in demand. Recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed a modest withdrawal of 7 billion cubic feet from gas storage in the week ending November 17. This figure is notably smaller than the 60 billion cubic feet withdrawal during the same period last year and falls short of the five-year average decline of 53 billion cubic feet.



Currently, U.S. gas stockpiles stand about 7% above the usual levels for this time of year. The EIA points to robust natural gas production and milder winter temperatures as the key reasons for these ample inventories. The warmer weather has led to a reduced need for heating, with forecasts predicting a 4% decrease in heating degree days compared to the last decade's average. This is expected to result in a 2% reduction in space heating consumption, compared to the five-year average. Adding to the supply situation, November has seen an average gas output of 107.6 billion cubic feet per day, an increase from the previous record of 104.2 billion in October.

[Solid ECN]

The Oil Market's Recent Dip: OPEC+ Strategy and Economic Factors

On Tuesday, WTI crude futures saw a slight uptick, trading around $75 per barrel after experiencing losses in four straight sessions. This change comes amid worries about potential further delays in the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, which may result in continuing the existing oil production policy.



Saudi Arabia is advocating for a cut in production quotas to stabilize the market, yet no agreement has been reached so far. The meeting, initially scheduled for November 26, has been pushed to November 30 because of disagreements over output quotas, particularly involving Nigeria and Angola. Since September 27th, there has been a more than 15% decline in the oil market, attributed to abundant supplies and global economic uncertainties.