Market Update by Solidecn.com

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NZDUSD Rises, Bullish Trend Foreseen​

Solid ECN – The NZDUSD pair recently achieved a notable uptick, reaching the highs of the previous week, closely aligned with the proximity of the Ichimoku cloud. A glance at the 4-hour chart reveals that the ADX lines linger below the 20 mark. This positioning indicates that the NZDUSD has been experiencing a range-bound movement in today's trading, marked by a discernible lack of momentum.




Looking at the RSI indicator, it maintains a position above 50, and the Awesome Oscillator bars present in green, signaling a positive trend. Taking these technical indicators into account, along with the overall market trajectory, it seems probable that the NZDUSD's value might escalate, potentially targeting the upper limit of the bullish flag.

Supporting this bullish stance are the Ichimoku cloud and the lower band of the bullish flag. The bullish forecast for the NZDUSD remains valid as long as it continues to trade above these levels.​

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Canada's New Home Prices Dip in November 2023

In November 2023, Canada witnessed a 0.2% month-over-month decrease in new home prices, slightly exceeding the market's forecast of a 0.1% reduction. This decline follows a steady reading in October. A notable change was seen across 25 of the 27 census metropolitan areas, where costs either decreased or remained stable. Sherbrooke experienced the most substantial drop in prices, falling by 1.2%, with St. John's and Hamilton closely following, each recording a 1.0% decrease. These significant reductions are primarily linked to less robust market conditions.

Conversely, new home prices in Trois-Rivières and St. Catharines-Niagara bucked the trend, rising by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. These increases can be attributed to the escalating costs of construction in these areas. On an annual basis, the cost of new homes in Canada in November 2023 marked a decrease of 0.9%, continuing a downward trajectory that has persisted since November 2019.

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AUDUSD Stays Bullish Above Key Support

In the realm of technical analysis, the AUDUSD currency pair has impressively established itself above a key support zone, which spans a tight range from 1.6678 to 1.6690.

Turning to the indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is inching closer to the overbought threshold, indicating a strong buying interest. Simultaneously, the Awesome Oscillator and the Average Directional Index (ADX) both point towards a sustained bullish momentum. While the rising RSI does hint at a possible consolidation phase, the bullish trajectory appears likely to aim for the upper boundary of the bullish channel. This bullish sentiment is further reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. As the AUDUSD pair continues trading above this level, the bullish forces are expected to maintain their dominance.

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EURUSD Bullish Wave: Eyes on Fibonacci Levels

In mid-December, the EURUSD pair soared, reaching a peak of 1.1016, mirroring the November high. This notable resistance was bolstered by signals from the Awesome Oscillator, indicating divergence. Consequently, the EURUSD's value dipped beneath the critical 38.2% Fibonacci support level, a move further backed by a previously breached bullish flag.



Technical analysis suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend. The ADX indicator's green bar ascended past the 20 mark, while the RSI remains steadfast above 50. However, the Awesome Oscillator stands alone in signaling bearish possibilities.

Should the bulls successfully maintain the EURUSD above the 38.2% threshold, a fresh surge in bullish momentum is likely, targeting the recent highs. Conversely, a decline below this pivotal level could signal a prolonged consolidation phase, potentially stretching down to the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci support levels.

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Euro and the Impact of Global Monetary Policies and PMI Data

Solid ECN – Recently, the euro has been lingering just under the $1.1 level. This comes as investors are taking in a series of decisions made by central banks last week, as well as the latest PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data. Last Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) chose to keep interest rates stable, going against some expectations of a rate cut. ECB President Lagarde emphasized that the idea of reducing borrowing costs wasn't discussed, and any future decisions will be based on upcoming data.



In contrast, the US Federal Reserve indicated on Wednesday that its period of significant monetary policy tightening might be over, suggesting that we could see up to three rate reductions in 2024. Additionally, there’s a focus on the recent PMI numbers from Europe, which were lower than expected, showing a greater decline in the Eurozone's private sector activities for December.

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Predicting NZDUSD's Next Moves​

Recently, the NZDUSD currency pair reached the important 38.2% Fibonacci support level. This was something we had anticipated earlier, suggesting that the pair might regain and stabilize some of its recent increases. Looking ahead, if buyers, or 'bulls', can keep the currency above this crucial 38.2% mark, we could see the NZDUSD's value start to climb.

However, if sellers, known as 'bears', manage to push the value below this 38.2% Fibonacci level, the pair might enter a longer phase of stabilization, possibly reaching the area known as the Ichimoku cloud.

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Dollar Plummets to Four-Month Low

On Thursday, the dollar index fell below 102.4, hitting its lowest level in four months since early August. This drop came as investors digested the latest decisions on monetary policy and new economic data from the US. For the third time in a row, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. They also signaled a more rapid reduction in rates for 2024, estimating 75 basis points in cuts, more than what was projected in September.



During the press conference, Fed Chair Powell maintained a dovish stance, hinting at possible reductions in borrowing costs due to a faster-than-expected drop in inflation. On the other hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England decided to keep their rates steady. They committed to maintaining higher rates to tackle inflation. Despite robust US retail sales and a fall in weekly jobless claims, these developments didn't significantly alter investors' outlook.

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Interest Rate Cuts Boost FTSE MIB, But Banks Struggle

Solid ECN​​​​​​​ – The FTSE MIB experienced a modest increase of 0.5%, reaching the 30,500 mark on Thursday. This peak, last observed in June 2008, followed the Federal Reserve's announcement of a significant 75 basis points reduction in interest rates for the upcoming year, exceeding initial predictions. Despite this rise, the Italian index lagged behind its European counterparts. This underperformance is attributed to the impact of lower borrowing costs on the profit margins of banks. Major banking institutions faced declines, with notable drops in Unicredit (2.9%), Banco BPM (4.7%), Bper Banca (5.6%), and Banca Monte Paschi Siena (4%). In contrast, shares in companies like Amplifon, Telecom Italia, and Diasorin saw an increase of over 4%. Market focus is now shifting to the European Central Bank's upcoming decision, anticipated to maintain high interest rates. Investors are keenly awaiting any indications of potential rate cuts.