Market Update by Solidecn.com

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Swiss Franc Climbs High: November 2023's Financial Outlook

In November, the Swiss franc reached 0.88 against the US dollar, marking its strongest position in over two months. This rise was primarily influenced by the widespread weakening of the dollar, spurred by a series of weaker economic indicators. These indicators have led to increased speculation that the Federal Reserve might start reducing interest rates by the second quarter of 2024.

Within Switzerland, the economic landscape also contributed to the franc's trajectory. The country's restrained inflation rate, which remained under 2% for the fifth month running in October, coupled with a stagnating economy, limited the support from monetary policy for the franc. Specifically, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Switzerland showed no growth in the second quarter.




Moreover, the easing of tensions in the geopolitical conflict between Israel and Gaza played a role in reducing the demand for the franc as a safe-haven currency. This situation led to the franc trading near its lowest in four months against the euro. Despite these various factors, the franc is projected to end 2023 stronger against both the dollar and the euro. This strength is largely attributed to the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) reduction in foreign currency reserves, which dropped to their lowest in nearly six years in October. - Source

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NZD Gains Strength as RBNZ Focuses on Inflation

Solid ECN - The New Zealand dollar experienced a notable increase this Friday, maintaining a value around $0.605. This marks the second week of significant growth, fueled by expectations that the nation's central bank will maintain its aggressive stance against persistent inflation in their upcoming end-of-year monetary policy meeting.



In October, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the cash rate steady at 5.5% for the third time in a row. However, they warned that consumer price inflation was still too high. To manage this, they suggested that interest rates might need to remain high for an extended period to bring inflation within the target range of 1 to 3%.

Meanwhile, the recent changes in government in Wellington have led to a shift in policy direction. The new coalition government has revised the central bank's dual mandate, which previously included both inflation and employment concerns, to now solely focus on price stability.

Over in China, government advisors are preparing for an important annual meeting in December. They're expected to set the GDP growth targets for the upcoming year, with projections ranging between 4.5% and 5.5%. This move is part of Beijing's broader strategy to stabilize demand and address the challenges in the real estate sector.

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Madrid Stocks Cautiously Higher

Madrid's stock market exhibited a cautious uptrend, with the IBEX 35 index slightly surpassing the 9,900 mark on Friday. This movement marked a continuation of the rising trend for the third consecutive session, touching the highs of 2020. Market participants are keenly observing the influx of economic data and any indications of forthcoming decisions by major central banks. There is a heightened focus on the scheduled public appearances of European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and Vice President Luis de Guindos. Despite this, there remains an underlying concern about a possible economic deceleration. This apprehension is fueled by Germany's shrinking GDP and the persistently contracting Eurozone PMI indices, which remain below the critical 50-point mark.

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Turkish Manufacturing Confidence Hits a Low

In recent months, Turkey has witnessed a notable decline in business morale, reaching its lowest point in nearly a year as of November 2023. This downturn is primarily reflected in the manufacturing confidence index, which saw a decrease from 103.3 in October to 100.2 in November. This figure is significant as it represents the lowest level since December of the previous year, indicating a shift in the business climate.


Analyzing the Key Factors

Several factors contribute to this decline in confidence. Firstly, there's a noticeable drop in expectations for production, which decreased from 106.6 in October to 108.5. This decline suggests a reduction in anticipated manufacturing output, which can impact the overall economic productivity. Secondly, the outlook for export order books also showed a downturn, moving from 107.9 to a lower 100.3. This change hints at a possible decrease in foreign demand for Turkish products, which can affect the country's trade balance and revenue from exports.

However, it's not all negative. There's a silver lining as the anticipations for total employment over the next twelve months have risen slightly from 109.5 to 111. This increase could mean that businesses are still planning to expand their workforce, possibly indicating a belief in future growth or stability.

Another area of concern is the decrease in fixed investment expenditure, which fell from 118 to 115.6. This reduction may imply a hesitancy in committing to long-term investments, possibly due to uncertainty in the market or economic forecasts. Additionally, the general business situation also experienced a slight downturn, moving from 92.8 to 91.7.


Economic Implications

The decline in business confidence in Turkey can have both direct and indirect effects on the economy. Lower confidence can lead to reduced investment and production, which in turn can slow down economic growth. The decrease in export expectations suggests potential challenges in the international market, which could affect Turkey's trade balance and foreign exchange earnings. However, the increase in employment expectations might cushion some of these negative impacts by supporting consumer spending and economic activity.


Assessment and Recommendations

While the decrease in business morale poses certain challenges, it also opens opportunities for strategic planning and adaptation. Businesses might need to diversify their markets, improve efficiency, or innovate to maintain competitiveness. Policymakers could also consider measures to boost business confidence, such as providing financial incentives, improving trade relations, or investing in infrastructure.

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XAGUSD

FxNews - In our Silver analysis, a bearish long-wick pattern was observed. The silver price has been fluctuating between the 78.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels.



The 4H chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern. The $23.4 support level is crucial. If breached, the target is the $23 threshold. The analysis is based on the price staying below $24.1. If this level is breached, the bearish scenario is invalidated.

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South Africa Holds Repo Rate Steady Amid Inflation Concerns

In a move that aligned with broad expectations, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decided to keep its key repo rate steady at 8.25% on November 23rd, 2023. This decision marks the third consecutive time the rate has been held at this level, reflecting the bank's strategy to stabilize inflation expectations in the country.

Governor Kganyago noted that inflation risks are still perceived as high. Meanwhile, the balance of risks regarding the medium-term domestic growth outlook remains even. Notably, headline inflation in South Africa saw a significant rise to 5.9% in October, reaching a five-month peak. This rate is inching closer to the upper limit of the central bank's target range of 3% to 6% and moving away from the 4.5% midpoint, which is the bank's preferred level for anchoring inflation expectations.

The central bank has adjusted its inflation forecast slightly downward to 5.8% for this year, a small decrease from the previous estimate of 5.9%. Looking ahead to 2024, the forecast is set at 5%, a minor revision from the earlier prediction of 5.1%. The forecasts for 2025 and 2026 project a stabilization of the inflation rate at 4.5%.

In terms of economic activity, the SARB has also revised its GDP growth forecasts. For 2023, the growth forecast has been increased from 0.7% to 0.8%, and for 2024, it has been adjusted from 1% to 1.2%.


Assessing the Impact on the Economy

The decision to maintain the repo rate can be seen as a cautious yet optimistic approach towards managing inflation without hindering economic growth. By keeping the rate steady, the SARB aims to ensure that inflation doesn't spiral out of control while also supporting economic recovery and growth. This balance is crucial for maintaining economic stability and fostering a favorable environment for investment and development.

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FTSE MIB Index: A Snapshot of Italian Market Stability

Solid ECN - The Italian stock market, specifically the FTSE MIB index, showed minimal changes on a recent Thursday, hovering around the 20,200 level. This steady trend mirrored the overall cautious sentiment prevailing in European markets at the time. Investors and traders were in a phase of evaluating new information, particularly the latest PMI surveys. These surveys revealed that the rate of contraction in the Eurozone's business activities for November was slowing down, a detail that held significant interest for market participants.


Influence of Political Developments

Additionally, the financial world was closely monitoring political events, notably the victory of a right-wing populist party in the Dutch elections. Political events like these can have far-reaching impacts on the stock market, influencing investor confidence and future economic policies.
Corporate Highlights and Their Impact.


Leonardo's Strategic Moves

One of the standout performers in the Italian market was Leonardo, which saw its stocks increase by 1.2%. This rise came after Mariani, the co-director general of Leonardo, confirmed the company's active pursuit of partnerships in the land armaments sector. Such strategic alliances often indicate growth potential and can positively affect a company’s stock price.


Challenges for Diasorin and Prysmian

Conversely, companies like Diasorin and Prysmian experienced a downturn, each losing about 1% in their stock value. Fluctuations like these are common in the stock market and can result from various factors, including company performance, sectoral trends, or broader market sentiments.


Effect on the Economy

The stability of the Italian stock market, as seen in this instance, generally indicates a balanced economic environment. While modest movements in major indexes like the FTSE MIB don't signal significant growth, they also suggest that the market isn't facing immediate instability or decline. This kind of stability can be reassuring for investors and beneficial for long-term economic planning.


The Bigger Picture

The interaction of corporate performance and political events with stock market trends provides crucial insights into the health and direction of the economy. For instance, Leonardo's growth in stock value might signal a strengthening in the defense sector, whereas the losses for Diasorin and Prysmian could point to challenges in their respective industries.​​​​​​​

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Oil

FxNews - The price of crude oil has recently experienced a decline, reaching the median line of its bearish channel. This downward trend aligns with expectations set when a bearish engulfing pattern emerged close to the bullish flag's upper boundary. It's anticipated that the oil price may stabilize somewhat near the bearish flag's central line. Nevertheless, the projected target appears to be the S1 level, corresponding to a support point around $72.

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