Market Update by Solidecn.com

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis

GBPUSD pair hovers around 1.1340 level since morning and keeps its stability below it until now, noticing that the price begins to provide negative trades motivated by stochastic negativity, waiting for more decline for the rest of the day as long as the mentioned level remains intact, reminding you that we are waiting to visit 1.1145 as a first target.



The expected trading range for today is between 1.1200 support and 1.1380 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.

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BTCUSD -Market uncertainty persists

The situation remains uncertain: on the one hand, in the long term, the position of the cryptocurrency market continues to be pressured by an increase in the interest rate in the United States, which may accelerate since inflation cannot be slowed down, and the deterioration of the global economic situation, which can reduce the activity of miners due to an increase in electricity prices. On the other hand, the potential for a serious decline in quotes seems to be limited since investors who want to abandon digital assets have already done so. A short-term positive impact on the trading instrument is the addition of support for trading cryptocurrencies in the United States by one of the largest brokers, Oanda, which has entered into a partnership with Paxos itBit, a regulated cryptocurrency platform, which should support the interest of ordinary American investors in digital assets.



The trading instrument remains within the sideways range of 19550–19000, having unsuccessfully tested its upper limit today and started to decline. If the zone of 19000–18750 is broken down, the quotes can reach 18000 (Murrey [1/8]), 17500 (Murrey [0/8]), and if they consolidate above 19550, the growth will be able to resume to 20000 (Murrey [4/8]) and 20625 (Murrey [3/8]).

Resistance levels: 19550, 20000, 20625 | Support levels: 18750, 18000, 17500

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Euro hits three-week high ahead of major European data

Euro rose on Monday for the third straight session against dollar, hitting three-week highs on prospects Bank of Japan might intervene in the market, and ahead of major European data in October. The dollar index hit multi-week lows as US 10-year yields decline while risk appetite improves in the market.

EURUSD rose 0.3% to 0.9899, the highest since October 5, after rising 0.75% on Friday, the second profit in a row as investors buy up riskier assets.




Major Data

Investors await important European data later today, including the manufacturing and services PMIs in October for Europe. Such data will offer clues on the state of the European economy in the fourth quarter.


The Dollar

The dollar index fell 0.4% on Monday for the third session to three-week lows at 111.47 against a basket of major rivals. US 10-year treasury yields fell over 2% for the second session away from 15-year highs at 4.335%, improving risk appetite.

Such developments come on profit-taking and prospects Bank of Japan might intervene soon in the market to support yen against major rivals.

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XAGUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level ended as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) formed, and the development of the third wave (3) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is developing, within which the wave (iii) of I has formed, a local correction has ended as the wave (iv) of I, and the development the wave (v) of i has started.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will grow to the area of 21.2 – 22.47. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 18.22.

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD pair resumes its negative trades to support the continuation of the bearish trend for the rest of the day, reminding you that our main targets begin at 1.1055 and extend to 1.0920 as next main stations, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, while the price needs to hold below 1.1290 to continue the expected decline.



The expected trading range for today is between 1.1080 support and 1.1220 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.

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NI 225 - foreign trade indicators impede the growth of the index

The leading Japanese stock index NI 225 continues to correct, trading near the level of 26881.0.

According to the latest report from the Japanese Ministry of Finance, Exports in September increased by 28.9% compared to the same period in 2021, amounting to 8.819 trillion yen, while Imports added 45.9%, reaching record 10.913 trillion yen. Thus, Japan's trade deficit has already amounted to 2.094 trillion yen, which is another record both in size and in duration, as the negative trade balance has been maintained for 14 consecutive months. The data released today showed a 0.4% increase in the National Consumer Price Index in September in monthly terms and 3.0% in annual terms. The indicator has been growing for the eighth month in a row, which is beginning to cause doubts among market participants about the continuation of the "dovish" policy and the negative interest rate retention by the Bank of Japan.



On the daily chart of the asset, the price remains within the local lateral corridor, holding near the support line. Technical indicators keep a sell signal despite the local correction: the histogram of the AO oscillator remains in the sell zone, forming new ascending bars, and fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line.

Support levels: 26350, 25500 | Resistance levels: 27400, 28400

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Euro declines amid grim economic outlook

Euro lost ground in European trade against dollar away from two-week highs on renewed profit-taking. The decline comes amid a grim outlook for the European economy, which continues to face mounting risks that might force it to slow down its monetary tightening plans. The dollar rose to week highs as US 10-year treasury yields spiked as well to fresh 14-year highs on prospects of more aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.



Grim Outlook
Analysts expect the grim outlook for Europe to hurt euro's standing amid mounting risks especially with the European trade deficit. Higher gas and oil prices also hurt import prices in a net energy importer, which in turn hurt industrial activities and led to a core commercial deficit. Also a slowdown in China hurt trade with the EU and impacted European exports.

The Dollar Index

• The dollar index rose 0.2% on Friday to week highs at 113.16 against a basket of major rivals.
• US 10-year treasury yields surged 1% today on track for the third profit in a row, hitting 14-year highs at 4.272%.

Such gains for US treasury yields came after a stream of bullish remarks by Federal Reserve officials, which paved the way for more aggressive policy tightening in the near future.

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Gold - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction developed as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) formed as a momentum. Now, the development of the fifth wave (5) has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (5) has formed, and a local correction ended as the wave (ii) of i of 1 of (5).

If the assumption is correct, the pair XAUUSD will grow to the area of 1808.78–1861.30. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1613.92.

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ADAUSD - Murrey analysis

The ADAUSD pair is moving within a short-term downtrend and this week reached the year's lows around ​​0.3418 (Murrey [–2/8]). Fixing the price below this level will give the prospect of further decline to 0.3173 (Murrey [–2/8] for H4) and 0.2900 (the lower border of the downwards channel). The key point for the "bulls" remains 0.3906 (Murrey [8/8]), supported by the middle line of Bollinger Bands. If it consolidates above it, the price will return to the main Murrey trading range and can rise to the area of ​​0.4150 (Murrey [1/8], upper downwards channel border) or 0.4395 (Murrey [2/8]).



Resistance levels: 0.3662, 0.3906, 0.415, 0.4395 | Support levels: 0.3418, 0.3173, 0.29

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EURUSD Under the Negative Pressure

EURUSD pair faced clear negative pressure yesterday to break 0.979 level and close the daily candlestick below it, which pushes the price to trade with expected negativity in the upcoming sessions, especially after exiting the intraday bullish channel that appears on the chart, to head towards achieving negative targets that start at 0.9700 and extend to 0.9630 after surpassing the previous level.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, supported by moving below the EMA50, noting that breaching 0.9790 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to recover again.



The expected trading range for today is between 0.9660 support and 0.9830 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.