Market Update by Solidecn.com

[Solid ECN]

Oil under pressure again after Democrats initiative disclosure


A while ago we saw a recovery in the oil market due to the Keystone pipeline spill, for which a federal investigation has already been launched. However, oil started its downward movement after markets circulated reports indicating that some senators in Congress have come up with a new initiative to increase taxation on 'Big Oil' companies in order to boost budget revenues. In addition to increasing taxation, the senators want to push oil companies to dramatically increase production. Politicians are clearly concerned about pro-inflationary increases in US oil prices. As a result, 'black gold' has come under pressure again and is giving back much of its earlier gains.





OIL.WTI chart, M30 interval


At the same time, oil companies continue to gain almost completely ignoring the initiative of politicians. Shares of Chevron (CVX.US), Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US, yellow chart) and Exxon Mobil (XOM.US, purple chart) opened today with an upward gap, with the stocks maintaining bullish momentum.

[Solid ECN]

GBPUSD needs positive momentum


The GBPUSD pair shows some slight bearish bias now to move around 1.2200 level, affected by stochastic negativity, while the EMA50 continues to support the price from below, to keep the chances valid to continue the expected bullish trend on the intraday and short term basis, which its next target located at 1.2345. Note that breaking 1.2130 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to start bearish correction that its targets begin by visiting 1.1925 areas.





The expected trading range for today is between 1.2120 support and 1.2290 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.

[Solid ECN]

EURUSD - The EU economy shows slight growth


Thus, according to November data, the growth of Q3 gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to 0.3%, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 0.2%, and the annual rate slowed to 2.3% from 4.2% earlier, according to preliminary estimates at 2.1%, helped by an increase in employment by 0.3% from an estimated 0.2%. Thus, employment in the region increases by 1.8% YoY and leads to an increase in the overall level of the indicator to 164.499K from 164.475K a quarter earlier.





On the daily chart, the trading instrument continues its corrective growth and is confidently holding above the resistance line of the local ascending corridor, and the technical indicators maintain a stable upward signal.


Resistance levels: 1.0590, 1.0780 | Support levels: 1.0440, 1.0240

[Solid ECN]

NZDUSD - Growth is possible.


On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) formed, a downward correction ended as the wave (B), and the wave (C) develops. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (C) is forming, within which the wave (iii) of i has formed, and a local correction is developing as the wave (iv) of i.


If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will grow to the area of 0.6500 – 0.6600. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6149.

[Solid ECN]

AUDUSD - Growth is possible.


On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) formed, a downward correction ended as the second wave (2), and the third wave (3) develops, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) forms. Now, the wave (iii) of i and the wave v of (iii) are developing.


If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will grow to the area of 0.6916 – 0.7142. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6584.

[Solid ECN]

USDJPY - Trading in a local downtrend


Thus, the average salary compared to 2021 added only 1.8%, while last month, it increased by 2.1%, and analysts predicted a continuation of the positive trend to 2.0%. The Household Expenditure Index slowed to 1.1% in October from 1.8% a month earlier, which led to a decrease in the annual rate to 1.2% from 2.3% in the previous period, while the total income of employees in the form of wages increased by 1.8%, down from 2.2% a month earlier.





On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving in a local downward corridor, and the technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal.


Support levels: 135.5, 131.4 | Resistance levels: 138.9, 142.2

[Solid ECN]

EURUSD crawls downwards

The EURUSD pair trades with calm negativity to move away from 1.0515 level, to hint continuing the decline on the intraday basis, targeting visiting 1.0425 followed by 1.0285 after breaking the previous level. Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that failing to break 1.0425 will lead the price to build bullish wave and attempt to resume the correctional bullish trend again.



The expected trading range for today is between 1.0360 support and 1.0520 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.

[Solid ECN]

USDCAD - Growth is possible.


On the daily chart, the upward fifth wave of the higher level 5 and the wave (3) of 5 develop. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (3) has formed, a local correction has ended as the fourth wave 4 of (3), and the formation of the wave 5 of (5) has started, within which the wave i of 5 is developing.


If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.3978 – 1.45. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3222.

[Solid ECN]

Crude oil sell-off intensifies


Oil prices continue to move sharply lower on Tuesday reaching a level not seen since the beginning of the year as rising demand concerns overshadowed the impact of EU price cap on Russian oil. Weak data from China's service sector, weakening manufacturing activity in the EU and US, expectations of further rate increases from major central banks and rebounding dollar put pressure on oil prices. A report that Russia was considering a oil-price floor provided only a brief respite for bulls as price resumed downward move in late afternoon. One needs to remember that if the price will drop below $70.0 per barrel, then this may force OPEC reaction.





Oil price fell below $80 a barrel, its lowest level this year. Looking at the D1 timeframe, one can notice a dynamic break below the support at 82.40, which could lead to a further sell-off. The next key support is located at $76.50.

[Solid ECN]

Bitcoin is Trying to Avoid Losing Momentum


Bitcoin is trying to hold near $17,000 despite deteriorating sentiment on stock market indices. Analyst firm Glassnode reported that the major cryptocurrency has reached several important on-chain levels.





The average of realized losses was at new historical peaks at 0.60, indicating a progressive, unprecedented sell-off in the cryptocurrency market. Historically, these levels have proven to be opportunities for accumulation and heralded an impending rally by cryptocurrency bulls. The level of losses realized by the market since 2011 has become 14 times the level of realized gains. We also see a preserved '4-year cyclicality' in relation to the previous 'cryptocurrency winters' of 2011, 2015 and 2018.





The chart shows two on-chain metrics to better represent the network's cost basis, and which have been breached in previous bear markets. Balanced price (Balanced price, blue band) is an experimental attempt to capture the 'fair' valuation of Bitcoin by measuring the difference between the value investors paid for it and the value of liquidated Bitcoins (Transferred price). The delta price (Delta price, purple band) is the difference between Bitcoin's realized capital and capitalization divided by circulating supply; the moving average refers to Bitcoin's total lifetime. In none of the previous besses did the price of Bitcoin fall below the 'Delta Price' (purple). Only for about 136 of the last 4518 BTC days was there a period where we could see the price 'touching' the balanced price. Currently, we see that both lines are between $15,500 and $12,000. Bitcoin's price briefly found itself near the balanced price after the collapse of FTX, but the bulls quickly reacted by taking the stock up. Throughout BTC's history, the balanced price has proven to be the ultimate support level for Bitcoin, below which declines have never occurred.





Bitcoin chart, M30 interval. The major cryptocurrency managed to hold the $17,000 level despite yesterday's dynamic sell-off, during which supply quickly pushed the bulls on the defensive and prevented it from reaching the $17,500 level. We also see that bitcoin continues to correlate with the NASDAQ index (yellow chart). Yesterday's declines on the indexes translated into sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry. As a result, Bitcoin has again slipped below the 200-session average (red line), and the next closest support is the levels at $16,800, where the 38.2 Fibonacci abolition of the upward wave that began in late November is located.