Market Update by Solidecn.com

[Solid ECN]

Crude Oil - OPEC expects growth in global oil production

According to OPEC estimates, the trend for the recovery of quotations of "black gold" can be continued against the background of an increase in production. According to preliminary data, by the end of 2022, production will increase by 1.9M barrels per day by countries outside the cartel, and the forecast for 2023 suggests that the indicator will add another 1.5M barrels per day, reaching 67.2M barrels. It is expected that the USA, Canada and Brazil will remain the leaders in the production of "black gold", while in Norway and Thailand it will decrease slightly.

According to Bloomberg, despite the restrictions, Russian oil supplies by sea last week reached a maximum since April 2022 of 3.8M barrels per day. China, India and Turkey stand out among the main destinations, while Bulgaria remains the only port of shipment to the EU.



On the daily chart, the price is trading in a narrow sideways range, moving away from the lows of the year at the level of 70.5. The technical indicators confirm the high probability of continued corrective growth, strengthening the buy signal.

Support levels: 78.44, 70.5 | Resistance levels: 83.28, 92.2

[Solid ECN]

Chart of the Day - GBPJPY

The Japanese yen is in the center of attention today, following the Bank of Japan monetary policy. The Bank of Japan decided not to make a move today - interest rates were left unchanged and the tolerance band around target 10-year yield was left unchanged as well. This was seen as disappointment. The Bank of Japan has to intervene almost on a daily basis to bring 10-year yields down from the upper limit of the tolerance band so investors hoped that another widening of the band could be on the cards today. No such decision was made and JPY took a beating as a result. BoJ Governor Kuroda said during a post-meeting press conference that he does not believe the tolerance band needs to be widened further. Nevertheless, the term of Governor Kuroda ends in April this year and his successor may have different beliefs when it comes to markets and rates.

However, it should be noted that the Bank of Japan did make some changes today. BoJ announced that it is amending rules for funds-supply market operations. New rules allow the Bank of Japan to make loans against collateral to financial institutions on both - fixed and variable - rates. Earlier, loans with maturity of up to 10-years were only offered at fixed-rate. The move is aimed at making funds-supply market operations a viable tool for preventing excessive increases in the long-term rates.




As no changed to the rates or tolerance band was made and Bank of Japan pledge to continue with large scale bond purchases to keep yields in check, one should not be surprised that Japanese yen took a hit today. JPY was trading as much as 2.5% lower against US dollar at one point, and over 2% lower against almost all other majors. However, big part of the move has been erased already.

Taking a look at GBPJPY chart at D1 interval, we can see that the move on the pair today was massive. Pair traded 2.5% higher at one point and was testing the resistance zone ranging below 162.00 handle, and marked with previous price reactions. Nevertheless, as we have said earlier - a big part of the move was already released and GBPJPY pulled back to the 160.00 swing level.

[Solid ECN]

USDCHF - Growth is possible

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the upward first wave (1) of 3 formed, and a downward correction ended as the second wave (2) of 3. Now, the wave C of (2) has ended, and the development of the upward wave (3) of 3 has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) has formed.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 0.99 – 1.0147. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9164.

[Solid ECN]

USDCAD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward fifth wave of the higher level 5 develops, within which the wave (3) of 5 forms. Now, the wave 5 of (3) is developing, within which the wave i of 5 has appeared, a local correction has ended as the wave ii of 5, and the formation of the wave iii of 5 is starting.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.3978 – 1.45. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3315.

[Solid ECN]

ETHUSD - Technical analysis

The price left the sideways range of 1325 – 1090, where it had been trading for about two months, and reached 1566.40. Further growth of quotations is possible around November highs to 1650, the breakdown of which may cause an increase around 1875 (Murrey level [3/8] for W1). If 1500 (Murrey level [8/8]) is broken down, the decline may resume to 1375 (Murrey level [6/8], Fibonacci retracement 50.0%) and 1312.5 (Murrey level [5/8], Fibonacci retracement 38 .2%, the middle line of Bollinger bands).



Resistance levels: 1650, 1875 | Support levels: 1500, 1375, 1312.5

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[Solid ECN]

GBPUSD Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD pair shows calm trades since morning, and AC provides the positive signals, waiting to resume the bullish trend that targets 1.2440 level as a next main station, reminding you that the continuation of the bullish wave depends on the price stability above 1.2150.



The expected trading range for today is between 1.2130 support and 1.2290 resistance.

[Solid ECN]

AUDUSD Awaits more Rise

The AUDUSD pair faced temporary negative pressure in the previous sessions to lean on the intraday support line that appears on the chart and begins rising now, accompanied by witnessing positive signals through stochastic, waiting to motivate the price to provide more positive trades on the intraday and short term basis, reminding you that our next target is located at 0.7080.



Therefore, our bullish overview will remain valid conditioned by the price stability above 0.6915. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6920 support and 0.7040 resistance.

[Solid ECN]

USDCHF Loses Momentum

The USDCHF pair fluctuates at the EMA50, noticing that stochastic loses its positive momentum clearly, waiting to motivate the price to resume the negative trading that its targets begin by breaking 0.9215 to open the way to visit 0.9150 followed by 0.9100 levels.



Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period unless breaching 0.9330 and holding above it. The expected trading range for today is between 0.9170 support and 0.9300 resistance.

[Solid ECN]

BTCUSD - Monetary factors support the growth of "digital gold"

The main support for the entire cryptocurrency sector was provided by monetary factors. After the release on Thursday of the December data on US consumer inflation, which recorded a new slowdown in its growth rate from 7.1% to 6.5% on an annualized basis, investors became stronger in the opinion that the US Fed will also adjust the rate of interest rate hike to 25.0 percentage points, putting pressure on the quotes of the national currency. As a result, the positions of alternative assets, including digital ones, have strengthened. It should be noted that the current trend is in line with the forecasts of the well-known crypto enthusiast, the head of Galaxy Digital, Michael Novogratz, who at the beginning of last year said that the digital asset market would restore positive dynamics after the American regulator retreats from the policy of sharp monetary tightening. Further positive for the sector was the news that the FTX bankruptcy team was able to restore access to the company's assets of about 5.0B dollars, which could provide investors with a significant part of the losses.

However, despite a number of positive factors, the further recovery of BTC positions does not look sustainable, as the position of the cryptocurrency industry as a whole remains difficult. The decline in trading volumes on the leading centralized exchanges continues, in December alone, the number of spot trading decreased by 42.8% at once, and of futures – by 47.6% compared to November. The difficult financial situation caused by a protracted fall in prices last year is forcing companies to optimize costs and reduce staff. Thus, the Coinbase platform announced plans to lay off 950 employees, which is about 20.0% of the staff. Cryptocurrency company ConsenSys intends to lay off about 100 employees, and cryptocurrency wallet operator Blockchain.com – 110. In addition, additional problems for the industry may be created by a new lawsuit by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against the Gemini site and the Genesis credit service, which, according to the regulator, are guilty of unregistered sale of securities to investors.



Technically, the price is testing the resistance zone of 21000 - 21250 (Murray level [+1/8], Fibo retracement 61.8%), consolidation above it will give the prospect of further growth to the levels of 22500 (Murray level [+2/8]) and 25000 (Murray level [0/8] for W1). If the level of 20000 (Murray level [8/8], Fibo retracement 50.0%) is broken down, the decline will be able to resume to the area of 19100 (Fibo retracement 38.2%) and 17830 (Fibo retracement 23.6%).

Resistance levels: 21250, 22500, 25000 | Support levels: 20000, 19100, 17830

[Solid ECN]

EURUSD Gets New Positive Signal

The EURUSD pair resumes its positive trading after the temporary decline that it witnessed in the previous sessions, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend, motivated by the positive overlapping signal provided by stochastic now, waiting to visit 1.0915 as a next main target.




The EMA50 continues to support the suggested bullish wave, which will remain valid as long as 1.0745 level remains intact. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0790 support and 1.0950 resistance.