Market Update by Solidecn.com

[Solid ECN]

EURUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.


If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.0500 – 1.0325. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0695.

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Bitcoin

Cryptocurrencies are on watch as potentially another collapse is brewing on the markets. Concerns are mounting over the financial condition of Silvergate Bank, a bank that specializes in cryptocurrency transactions. Silvergate warned in a filing on Wednesday that recent losses that the bank has experienced may leave it with less capital than it needs. Company also said that it failed to meet the deadline to submit its annual report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Reaction was quick with hedge funds, partners and investors pulling out from the Bank, leading to a collapse in its share price. Cryptocurrency companies, like for example Coinbase, stop accepting and initiating payments to or from Silvergate. However, some companies, like for example BitStamp, warned that they cannot be held responsible for any funds deposited at Silvergate accounts, signaling to clients that they decide to use Silvergate accounts at their own risk.


Whole situation is putting pressure on cryptocurrencies with major coins dropping 3-7% today. Taking a look at the BITCOIN chart at the D1 interval, we can see that the coin is testing a major support zone today. The $22,450 area is marked with previous price reactions as well as the lower limit of a local market geometry. A break below would, at least in theory, hint at a short-term trend reversal. In such a scenario, declines could deepen with sellers targeting the next support zone in-line - $21,200 area marked with previous price reactions and 100-period Exponential Moving Average (green line).

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USDCAD

The USDCAD pair continues to decline to break 1.3600 level and settles below it, to head towards providing more negative trades on the intraday basis, targeting visiting 1.3500 level mainly.



Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that the expected decline is temporary, waiting to resume the bullish wave that its targets begin by testing 1.3680 level. On the other hand, we should note that breaching 1.3630 will stop the suggested negative scenario for today and lead the price to recover again.

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EURJPY

The EURJPY pair postponed the bullish rally, affected by 145.25 level forming an obstacle against the bullish attempts, to notice providing weak sideways fluctuation by consolidating near 144.80.



We remind you that the bullish scenario will remain valid as long as 144.00 forms additional support line, and stochastic attempt to crawl towards the overbought areas, allowing us to wait to surpass the current obstacle and manage to reach the next main target at 146.50.

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GBPCHF

The GBPCHF pair ended the correctional bullish rebound by providing new negative close below 1.1415 resistance, to notice crawling below the moving average 55 and consolidate near 1.1255, also, stochastic begins to provide the negative momentum to increase the efficiency of the bearish track, to keep waiting to touch the negative stations near 1.1180 followed by reaching the additional support at 1.1100.



The expected trading range for today is between 1.1310 and 1.1180.

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Oil

Crude oil price breached 77.40 level clearly to trade at 78.00 barrier now, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend for the rest of the day, and the way is open to achieve our first target at 78.90, reminding you that breaching it will push the price to 80.40 as a next main target, while holding above 77.40 represents key condition to continue the expected rise, which gets good positive support by the EMA50.



The expected trading range for today is between 76.20 support and 79.40 resistance.

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EURGBP

EUR could be on the move later today when the CPI report for February from the euro area and ECB minutes are released at 10:00 am GMT and 12:30 pm GMT, respectively. CPI reading may draw more attention as it will be more timely - keep in mind that ECB minutes will be a recap of discussions from around 3 weeks ago and therefore views included may be outdated. In fact, many ECB members have struck a hawkish tone since the latest meeting with ECB President Lagarde saying this morning that a 50 bp rate hike at the March meeting is still on the table. This has provided some support for EUR this morning and put some pressure on European equities. Lagarde also said that she does not expect recession in the euro area and that inflation should start to slow from march due to base effects.



Taking a look at EURGBP chart at D1 interval, we can see that the pair has climbed to the 0.8900 resistance zone yesterday. An attempt to break above was made today on the back of Lagarde's comments but those gains were already erased. Nevertheless, another attempt cannot be ruled out given two potential EUR-volatility events later in the day (CPI and ECB minutes). Also the pair may see some action during speeches from ECB Schnabel (12:30 pm GMT), BoE Tenreyro (1:00 pm GMT) and BoE Pill (3:00 pm GMT).

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EURCHF

The EURCHF pair took advantage of the stability of the additional support at 0.9860 to push it above the EMA50, achieving clear gains by reaching 1.0032, these factors confirm surrendering to the domination of the bullish bias, noting that stochastic positive momentum signals will assist to resume the bullish rally, to expect targeting 1.0080 followed by pressing on the additional barrier at 1.0145 as a next target for the bullish bias.



The expected trading range for today is between 0.9975 and 1.0080.

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NZDUSD

The NZDUSD pair rallied upwards to breach the bearish channel’s resistance and head towards testing the most important resistance at 0.6290, and we prefer to stay aside until the price confirms its situation according to this level, as continuing the rise and breaching it will push the price to achieve additional gains that start by visiting 0.6385 areas, while consolidating below it will press on the price to resume the correctional bearish wave that its targets begin by testing 0.6140.



The expected trading range for today is between 0.6180 support and 0.6280 resistance.

[Solid ECN]

AUDJPY


AUDJPY has been trading sideways in recent days but the pair may be heading for a breakout from this short-term lull today. Release of much better than expected official PMIs from China supported market sentiment during the Asian trading session and is also providing support for indices from the Old Continent at the beginning of the European cash session today. However, AUDJPY has already given back some gains following the initial rally as investors are having second thoughts.


There are 2 factors at play for AUDJPY today. The first one is the aforementioned release of official Chinese PMIs. The second one, is a release of not so encouraging data from the Australian economy. The Australian GDP report for Q4 2022 showed growth of 0.5% QoQ, which was weaker than the 0.7% QoQ median estimate from economists. Moreover, Australian CPI data for January showed a quite significant slowdown from 8.4 to 7.4% YoY while markets expected a deceleration to 8.1% YoY. Weaker than expected GDP growth and bigger than expected slowdown in CPI inflation gives Reserve Bank of Australia some room to justify slowing or pausing the rate hike cycle.





Taking a look at AUDJPY chart at D1 interval, we can see that the pair has been trading in a short-term upward channel since mid-December 2022. The pair made two attempts at breaking above the 93.00 resistance zone recently but have later pulled back following a failure. After around a week of trading sideways in the 91.70 area, we are seeing some action from AUDJPY bulls today. However, it should be noted that both - upper and lower - wicks of recent daily candlesticks have been quite large. This means that it cannot be ruled out that we will see reversal of today's gains later into the day and painting of another doji-like candlestick, signaling persisting indecisiveness.