Market Update by Solidecn.com

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Bitcoin

BITCOIN deepened declines yesterday after Silvergate Capital announced liquidation of Silvergate Bank. The coin is making another test of the $21,500 support zone.

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EURUSD

The EURUSD pair didn’t show any strong move yesterday, to settle near 1.0515, noticing that stochastic begins to lose the positive momentum gradually, while the EMA50 forms negative pressure against the price.



Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, and the targets begin by breaking the mentioned level to confirm heading towards 1.0440 as a next negative station, noting that breaching 1.0635 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to turn to rise.

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USDCAD

USDCAD is one of the pairs that will be on watch this afternoon. There is a number of events scheduled that could move the pair. ADP employment report for February at 1:15 pm GMT will be the first one of these and it will also be the final hint ahead of Friday's NFP report. ADP release will be followed by trade balance data for January from US and Canada at 1:15 pm GMT. However, the biggest USDCAD volatility today is expected around 3:00 pm GMT when Powell holds the second day of his semi-annual testimonies and Bank of Canada announces rate decision.



While speech from Powell and BoC rate decision are key events of the day, traders should keep in mind that there is also risk that they will turn out to be non-events. Powell will deliver the same speech as he did yesterday and the only thing that may differ are questions from lawmakers. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is expected to live up to its pledge of pausing rate hike cycle and leave rate unchanged at a meeting today.

Taking a look at USDCAD chart at H4 interval, we can see that the pair has been trading in an upward channel recently. The pair reached the highest level since early-November 2022 but the upward move slowed today as investors seem to be in wait-and-see mode ahead of USDCAD volatility events later in the day. As Powell is unlikely to make any major statements we have not heard during the first day of testimonies, surprise from Bank of Canada could be a massive volatility trigger. However, BoC has been quite clear about a plan to pause rate hike and failing to do so could have a negative impact on its credibility. Not to mention that situation in the Canadian economy did not change too much from the previous meeting.

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EURGBP

The EURGBP pair succeeded to renew the positive attempts by rallying above the additional support at 0.8795 recently, achieving big gains by moving towards the additional barrier 0.8925.



Now, the continuous positive momentum coming by the major indicators allows us to wait to confirm breaching the current barrier to open the way to target more positive stations, to expect moving towards 0.8955 soon, followed by attempting to touch the next main target at 0.9000.

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Gold

Gold price retested the breached neckline of the inverted head and shoulders’ pattern and keeps its stability above it, to start providing positive trades in attempt to move away from this level that represents key support at 1843.70, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid and active for the upcoming period, which targets testing 1878.80 mainly.



Stochastic shows clear positive signals now, while the EMA50 continues to provide the positive support to the price, to get positive motives that we are waiting to assist to push the price to achieve the waited rise. On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1843.70 followed by 1828.70 levels will stop the expected bullish trend and push the price to return to the correctional bearish track again.

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GBPUSD

The tight range dominates the GBPUSD pair’s trades since yesterday, keeping its stability above the breached resistance of the correctional bearish channel, thus, no change to the expected bullish trend for the upcoming period, which its next target located at 1.2145.



Note that the continuation of the bullish wave depends on the price stability above 1.1990 and the most important above 1.1940.

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GBPCAD

The GBPCAD pair confirmed its affection by the domination of the correctional bullish bias by moving away from 1.6060 support line and forming strong positive waves, to notice its consolidation near 1.6390 level, also, the moving average 55 fluctuation below the current price will increase the chances of resuming the correctional bullish trend, to assist to renew the pressure on 1.6510 barrier.



Note that succeeding to breach the targeted level will confirm moving to new bullish track to start recording additional gains that might extend towards 1.6625 followed by reaching 1.6750.

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EURUSD

ECB's Holzmann calls for 50 BPS hikes at the next 4 meetings. In addition he would like the PEPP program to be included in the balance sheet reduction, whose maturing instruments are reinvested for the time being. In his opinion, PEPP should be "pulled" into QT in autumn. These comments are very hawkish, however Holzmann belongs to the extreme group of "ultrahawks" at the ECB.



EURUSD tried to rebound slightly after Holzmann's comments.

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AUDUSD

AUDUSD is one of the pairs that may see some moves in the coming hours and days. The pair took a hit at the launch of this week's trading as China set a rather disappointing 2023 GDP growth target of 'around 5%'. This is because trading AUDUSD is often seen as a proxy China trade due to the Australian economy being highly dependent on demand from China, especially for its commodities.

The pair will likely also see some moves during the coming Asian session as the Reserve Bank of Australia is set to announce a monetary policy decision on Tuesday, 3:30 am GMT. Market expects a 25 basis point rate hike, to 3.60%. If confirmed, this would mark the fifth consecutive 25 basis point rate hike. Statement accompanying the latest decision noted that the RBA Board sees further rate hikes as appropriate and minutes from the latest meeting even showed that discussions were whether to hike by 25 or 50 bp. While a 25 bp rate hike looks like a done deal at a meeting tomorrow, a lot of attention will be paid to guidance and whether the RBA remains on a hawkish path.

When it comes to the US dollar, the currency may become more volatile on Tuesday and Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell delivers his semiannual testimony to Congress (3:00 pm GMT on both days, text release around 1:30 pm GMT on Tuesday). However, as Powell's speeches will come ahead of key US macro data, like NFP this Friday or CPI next week, it is widely expected that Powell will stick to his previous messaging and will not deliver any surprises.



Taking a look at AUDUSD chart at D1 interval, we can see that the pair has been attempted to make a break below the 38.2% retracement of the downward move launched in April 2022 for a few days. No such break occurred yet but it cannot be ruled out, especially if RBA surprises with a dovish message, like for example hinting that rates are close to peak. On the other hand, defending this area would be a strong bullish signal and could pave the way for a recovery towards 50% retracement in the 0.6900 area.

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NZDUSD

The NZDUSD pair hovers around the EMA50, and stochastic attempts to provide negative signals on the intraday time frames, waiting to resume the bearish trend that targets 0.6140 initially.



The targeted level represents 38.2% Fibonacci correction for the bullish wave that appears on the chart, thus, breaking it will push the price to 0.6020 as a next correctional target. In general, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period unless the price rallied to breach 0.6290 and hold above it.